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Showing 5 results for Mehregan

Dr Nader Mehregan, Dr Parviz Mohammadzadeh, Dr Mahmoud Haghani, Yunes Salmani,
Volume 4, Issue 12 (7-2013)

Price shocks lead to oil price volatility in world oil markets. In response to this volatility, economic growth may take different regime and behavior patterns in different situation. Investigating this multi behavior patterns can be useful for policymakers to reduce the effect of oil price volatility. In this study, an EGARCH model has developed using the seasonal data of OPEC oil basket nominal prices during 1367:Q1-1389:Q4. Markov switching models is also applied to investigate the multi behavior patterns of economic growth in response to oil price volatility in Iran. The results show that positive oil price shocks sharply lead to formation of oil price volatility, but, the negative price shocks will slightly reduce oil price volatility. Iranian economic growth is affected by this volatility under three different behavior regimes. If the economy switch to one of the regimes (low, medium, high economic growth), the probability of transition between these regimes and their duration is different. So, oil price volatility as a reason for low economic growth in Iran may cause the economy switch to its lower situation.
Nader Mehregan, Mohammad Hassan Fotros, Ali Akbar Gholizadeh, Younes Teymourei,
Volume 7, Issue 24 (6-2016)

This paper considers spatial distribution of industrial activities and effective factors on such a distribution. Ellison and Glaeser’s spatial concentration index, has been used for measureing spatial distribution of industry. This index has been calculated by Ad-value variable for 30 provinces of Iran and for period of 2006-2013. So, The spatial panel data model has been used in order to stimate impact of effective factors on spatial concentration. Results of this paper, show that distribution of industrial activities between provinces is strongly unequal. Azarbaijan Sharghi, Markazi, Ghazvin and Tehran provinces by 0.03, 0.04, 0.05 and 0.06 for EG index, are the most industrial provinces respectively. Boushehr, Hormozgan and Ilam provinces with 0.68, 0.28 and 0.26 for EG index are the worst industrial provinces. Also, Results from estimating model show that spatial dependance of provinces is equal to 0.31. Increasing return to scale and transportation costs, each one by 0.07 and 0.001 for coefficient in model, are effective on spatial distribution of industry.

Javad Barati, Zahra Karimi-Moughari, Nader Mehregan,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)

Investment spillover effects include regional growth factors around the developed centers, which this study aimed investigate effects of industrial investment spillover in provinces of Iran and the quantifying of these effects. Accordingly, it uses the spatial econometrics to explore the indirect effects or industrial investment spillover. The results indicate that provinces with a higher gravity index, which are respectively Tehran, Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Khuzestan and Fars with a coefficient of 0.152, 0.090, 0.085, 0.083 and 0.077 respectively, have more industrial investment spillover than other provinces. In contrast, provinces with more great geographical distance from developed provinces such as Ardabil, Sistan and Baluchestan, northern Khorasan and Ilam, respectively with coefficients of 0.029, 0.031, 0.037 and 0.038, have less benefit of industrial investment spillover Compared to other regions. Also, industrial investment spillover effects for different regions, very different from each other. As for some provinces, the indirect effects are much less than direct effects and for some provinces, the indirect effects are close to direct effects. This can be due to geographical location, politics, government regulation and exposure to developed provinces.

Mohammad Sarrafi Zanjani, Nader Mehregan,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)

Studying currency shocks impact on the stock market could be beneficial regarding to exchange rate fluctuations caused by various exchange policies in recent years. Therefore symmetrical or asymmetrical impacts of negative and positive dollar shockwaves in the market on indexes of chemical and basic metals industry are under investigation by weekly data collected since 2006 up to 2016 as these two industries have the most non-oil exports of Iran. First existence of long-term equilibrium relationship was examined by Pesaran Bound test and confirmed. Afterwards in addition to admitting asymmetric effect of positive and negative foreign exchange shocks on the indexes using WALD test, based on the results of the main model of the research which is the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), effects of increasing in dollar rate on both indexes are positive and meaningful and the effect of its decreasing is meaningless. In addition the extracted coefficients indicates deeper effects of free dollar rate on the chemical index in comparison with index of the basic metals. OPEC crude oil, which is the control variable considered in this article has a direct and significant effects on both indicators on the short and long term.

Mehdi Aminirad, Nader Mehregan,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)

Iran's economy as a developing and oil economy, needs to choose appropriate exchange rate regime is to achieve its economic goals. Some characteristics such as little diversity in production and trade, weak and underdevelopment financial markets and other features of the Iranian economy, Requires the choice of exchange rate regime be based on the features of the country. However, the choice of exchange rate regime a country, many variables affect that regardless of their choice of currency regime will be difficult and illogical. Hence, in this study using survival analysis and use of Reinhart and Rogoff approach to investigate the role of political and economic factors on the choice of a fixed exchange regime in Iran based on monthly data during the period 1980-2017. The advantage of survival analysis method it is time dependence that may exist in the occurrence of an event be included and the time can be used as a proxy for structural factors and unobservable variable in country. The results showed that political and economic variables affect the choice of the fixed exchange system in the country. The impact of political variables on the country's exchange rate regime shows that only economists are not involved in the decision on the exchange rate in Iran, and the preferences of political officials have a significant impact on foreign exchange policies.

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