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Showing 4 results for Rostamzadeh

Parviz Rostamzadeh, Ruhollah Shahnazi, Mogammad Sadeq Neisani,
Volume 9, Issue 32 (7-2018)

Credit risk is due to that recipients of the facility, deliberately or involuntarily, don’t have ability to repay their debts to the banking system that this risk is critical in Iran compared to the global. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on credit risk of Iranian banking industry during the 2006-2016 years and also simulation and prediction of credit risk situation in 2017 under different stress scenarios, bu using stress test. Data used in this research is time series and seasonal. In order to implement a stress test and achieve the purpose of the research, first, the effective macroeconomic variables and the rate of each one's influence on the credit risk are determined using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Accordingly, the inflation rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate and housing index in total have a positive effect and variables GDP, the interest rate of bank facilities and the volume of concessional facilities to both government and non-governmental sectors, have a negative impact on credit risk. In the following, using the stress test, simulation of critical situations and prediction of credit risk values in 2017. This was done in three scenarios with titles of mild stress, extreme stress, and hyperstress that in each scenario, different shocks are applied to the variables affecting credit risk. The results of the stress test and scenarios show that the compulsory reduction of interest rates on bank facilities in all three scenarios, initially in the second quarter of  2017, leads to a reduction in credit risk, but rising exchange rates, rising inflation, falling economic growth, as well as accumulation of past values of credit risk, has led to a rapid increase in credit risk and also in scenarios with more severs shocks, has led to catastrophic increase of credit risk in later periods in all scenarios.

Ali Kiani, Karim Eslamloueyan, Phd Roohollah Shahnazi, Parviz Rostamzadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)

In recent years, some research has focused on the importance of the origin of an oil shock for macroeconomic dynamics in both oil-exporting and importing countries. The existing literature lacks a proper open Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework to investigate the effect of the origins of oil shocks on macro variables in a two-country model consisting of an oil-exporting county and an oil-importing country. To this end, we develop and solve a new Keynesian DSGE model to show how the different oil shocks originating from oil supply or oil demand, might have diverse impacts on key macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting and importing counties. For the case study, we use data from Iran as an example of an oil-exporting country that trades with the rest of the world. Our DSGE model is estimated by using the Bayesian method for the period 1986:1-2017:4. The result shows that an oil shock originated from the shortage of oil supply (an exogenous decrease in Iran's oil production) decreases total production, non-oil trade, employment, inflation and consumption in this oil-exporting country. While a negative oil supply shock increases production costs and reduces production and consumption in Iran. However, an oil shock originated from an increase in the demand for oil raises output, non-oil trade, employment, consumption, and inflation in Iran as an oil-exporting country while a demand-side oil shock boosts production and increases inflation in this country.

Marzieh Rassaf, Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Dr Karim Eslamlueian, Dr Ebrahim Hadian,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)

After the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the capture of the spy nest, the West, and especially the United States, in addition to pursuing other tools, has also used the tools of sanctions and has implemented many sanctions against Iran. One type of sanctions is oil sanctions, which were imposed to force Iran to join the international community. The US and its allies' embargo on Iranian oil affects the variables of the Iranian and world economies. For this reason, a computable five-zone global trade model (GTAP) is used to calculate the implications of the game tree between the three independent actors of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. The closing of the GTAP model has been changed according to the assumptions used. The results show that the US, Iran and major oil buyers from Iran are damaged by the sanctions. This damage is exacerbated by increasing oil restrictions. With the escalation of sanctions, the European Union is also gaining negative welfare. In the Nash equilibrium, the United States and the European Union will choose weak sanctions, and Iran will try to circumvent the sanctions. Due to the economic costs of oil sanctions against Iran, the lack of full understanding between the United States and Europe, and Iran's efforts to circumvent sanctions, it seems that the United States will not be able to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero.
Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Elizabeth Soltani Shirazi, Dr Rouhollah Shahnazi, Dr Sakine Owjimehr,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)

Unconventional monetary policies entered the field of economic discussions after the global financial crisis of 2008 and with the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policies and have been considered with the aim of combating the reduction of money supply and economic recession. One of the important tools used to implement unconventional monetary policies is credit esing, which obviously does not have a quantitative value, and on the other hand, its prediction and impact on macroeconomic variables is of particular importance. In this research, the effect of the shocks resulting from the implementation of the credit easing policy on Iran's macroeconomic variables is investigated using the QUAL VAR method. In this way, using standard, simulated and quantified methods, the effect of credit easing policy shocks on macroeconomic variables during the years 2001 to 2022 is investigated using various tests. The results show that the impact of the mentioned policy shocks in the first months after the shock has caused a 0.04 percent decrease in the real GDP growth rate, a 0.01 percent increase in the inflation rate, and a 0.03 percent decrease in the employment rate and then in the following months, it will increase real GDP growth rate and employment rate. The mentioned shocks caused a 0.03 percent increase in the monetary base. Therefore, these applied shocks increase growth expectations. In general, the results show the fact that the policy of credit easing has led to an expansion in the assets side of the Central Bank's balance sheet, and by applying the necessary controls, it can be a suitable tool for stabilizing and growing macroeconomic variables in the months after its implementation and dealing with recessionary conditions.

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