Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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  The intensive effects of “targeted subsidies plan” and its implementation and that of the price of energy carriers on macroeconomic variables such as private consumption and Gross National Product, therefore increase in the price of energy carriers and the relevant issues have been debating and discussing for a long time. Regarding the significance of the issue and also its effect on the economic and society welfare, further and more comprehensive investigations into this subject seems to be necessary. This paper is presented with a review of previous studies and then explores the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the three important macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth, inflation and private consumption in the context of a structural vector regression to model SVAR. The results show that due to implementation of this plan, the economic growth and the private consumption decrease but the inflation will increase. The results showed that, the energy price index shocks the most influence on inflation variation are explained so that voters, in the medium term and long-term changes and about 40 percent of fluctuations in inflation, energy price shocks is described. Other findings of this study is that, in the long-term energy price shocks indices respectively about 20 and 11 percent of the fluctuations in private consumption and gross domestic product by the explained. It should be noted that all results, without considering the effects of resource redistribution payment received from government subsidies are.

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One of the most important aspects of vulnerability of the Iran economy can be observed in depreciation of real exchange rate during the oil booms. This phenomenon is called "Dutch disease". In other words when a country starts exporting natural resources, the ensuing capital inflows lead to an increase in demand. The real exchange rate (RER) typically appreciates due to “spending effect” as the price of domestic nontradables increases relative to the price of tradables. The main objective of this paper is to examine the cyclical patterns of the house price and macroeconomic variables in Iran. Using Hodrick and Prescot filtering method, the cross-correlation analysis is first presented to identify the long-run behavior of the variables. Then based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we investigate the interaction between housing price cycles and cyclical component of real oil revenue, real exchange rate, real GDP, money supply and interest rate. The results show that positive oil shocks, leads to an increase in housing price cycles.

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Generally,some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. One common phenomenon relating these changes is that the house price cycle is generally believed to the product of the short-run deviations from the long-run upward trends. The long-term cyclical fluctuation in Iran’s housing market was periodically occurred about every 6 years.
 Furthermore, Movements in house prices have significant impact on household welfare, financial stability and business cycles. Being able to forecast housing price booms is therefore of central importance for central banks, financial supervision authorities as well as for other economic agents. However, forecasting house prices using only a single or a few selected variables at a time intuitively appears efficient because only a single variable almost contain all of the pertinent investigative information about the past behavior of the variable. In this study, wavelet decomposition has been used to extract the cyclical components of house price, and then using the cyclical components and neural network methodwe start to forecast the booms in housing prices in 2013.