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Showing 7 results for Business Cycles

Ezatollah Abbasian, Mohammad Jafari, Ebrahim Nasiroleslami, Farzaneh Farzaneh Mohammadi,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)

In recent years, with increasing of international sanctions and oil revenues falling in Iran, more attention has paid to public spending and taxes as a source of government financing. In this regard, numerous studies have focused on the issue of taxation and its role in economic development. However, the most studies in Iran analyses the role of taxes on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and income inequality, and there is no research in the row of the changes in tax income over the business cycle. In this study, using the dynamic least squares method, short and long-run elasticity of tax bases in Iran in response to changes in GDP over the period 1973-2014 is calculated. The results shows that in the long run, the elasticity of income and corporate tax are statistically greater than one and for other tax bases are not significantly different from the unit. In the short run, elasticity of corporate tax is different from unit and other tax bases were not significantly different than unity. According to these results, it is suggested that the Iranian government should have less focusing on income and corporate tax during the recession period
Bahram Sahabi, Hossein Asgharpur, Saeed Qorbani,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)

In this study, using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE model) the hypothesis of asymmetry of monetary shocks in the Iranian business cycle during the period of 1979-2012 is tested on macroeconomic variables. The designed model broadens the analytical framework of dynamic equilibrium models with respect to the economic characteristics of an oil-exporting country. To extract business cycles, the Hodrick-Prescott filtering process has been used. The results of the research indicate that the effects of positive and negative monetary shocks during ascendancy and economic prosperity are asymmetric, so that the effect of positive shock during the recession period in the Iranian economy during the studied period was stronger than the negative shock level. On the other hand, the results show that the effect of positive shocks during the boom period in the Iranian economy on the price level changes its size in proportion to the size of the shock; however, the effect of negative shocks during the boom on the level of prices initially reduced inflation and then after a short time Inflation increases again. Therefore, it can be stated that in the economy of Iran both inflation and economic boom will increase. In the case of production and investment, this asymmetry is in a way that results in a broader expansionary policy in a recession and, in economic prosperity, the optimal political policy is contractionary.
Ebrahim Abdi, Farhad Khodadad Kashi, Mrs. Yeganeh Mosavi Jahromi,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)

The present study examined the impact of financial development on the investment of the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. To achieve this goal, data gathered from 258 companies during 2005 to 2016 and the dynamic generalized method of moments were utilized to formulate the investment model with financial constraints. The results of the study showed that these companies faced financial constraints on investment and financial development has increased their investment by reducing the financial constraints. The results also indicated that the positive effect of financial development on investment has been bigger in the case of larger companies than in smaller companies. It was further revealed that during the economic boom, financial constraints on companies were reduced and financial development led to the reinforcement of the positive effect of the boom on reduction of the companies’ financial constraints

Siab Mamipour, Hadis Abdi,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)

The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on business cycles dynamics in Iranian economy during period of 2005 to 2017 by using non-linear Markov switching model with the time varying transitional probabilities (MS-TVTP). So, first, the oil price shocks were extracted in four different modes, and then the effect of them on recession and boom regimes are investigated. The results of MS-TVTP model show that business cycles are affected by oil price fluctuations and shocks in Iran’s economy. The results indicate that, in all four modes which oil price shocks were calculated, the positive shocks in oil price increase the probability of staying in boom regime. Also positive oil price shocks increase the probability of transition from the recession regime in Iran’s economy. Also, with relative comparison of the coefficients of oil price shocks in the probability of staying in boom regime and transition from recession to boom regime, it can be argued that positive oil price shocks in recession period increases the probability of transition from recession more than the boom regime. In other words, oil price shocks in recession periods have a greater effect on rotation of economic situation and increase the probability of transition from recession regime, but in the boom regime, the positive oil price shock lead to increases the probability of staying in boom regime a little.

Ali Akbar Gholizade, Maryam Noroozonejad,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)

This paper studies the relationship between housing prices and business cycles in Iran. Since housing has a dual nature, that is, both private and capital nature, it can play an important role in investment costs and economic growth and incite other manufacturing sectors in the country. In this paper, housing prices and business cycles have been used to measure housing as a collateral, which is included in corporate credit constraints as well as a shock based on observations in housing price fluctuations. In order to investigate the relationship between housing prices, investment and economic fluctuations in Iran, seasonal data for the period 1991-2016 was used. To evaluate this dynamic, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been used. The results show a movement between housing prices and business investments influenced by the dynamics of housing prices in the macroeconomic. The results also indicate that the inclusion of housing prices as a collateral could be a factor in increasing the asset value of firms and, consequently, borrowings and future investments that lead to a move between housing prices and Investment and economic fluctuations in the country.

Dr Hassan Daliri,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)

Identifying the behavior of business cycles and factors affecting business cycles has always been one of the most important issues in macroeconomics. Importance of business cycles and the unique economic structure of OPEC member countries, so, this article identifies the behavior of business cycles in these countries. This study uses Quantile Panel Regressions Model to examine the impact of variables such as government expenditure, trade openness, liquidity growth, oil prices and two dummy variables of the global recession and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement on the formation of business cycles in OPEC countries in the period 2000-2019. The results show that the values of the coefficients of each variable in different quantiles were significantly different from each other. Government expenditure and trade openness in the initial quantile has been in the agreed direction to the cycles and the End quantile opposite direction. The results of the effect of liquidity growth show that in the initial and end quantile has been agreed with direction to the cycles and in the middle quantile opposite direction to the cycles. Oil prices have also been agreed with the direction of the business cycles. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement variable in the first quantile has a significant impact on business cycles and the global financial recession has also acted against cycles.
Mr Mohammad Nikzad, Dr Mahdi Yazdani,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)

The balance of payments shocks affects different economies and can lead to business cycles. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks, including the shocks of oil exports, non-oil exports, imports, net capital account, real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index, on total output and creation of business cycles. Therefore, in this study it will be tried to evaluate the effect of balance of payments shocks, and their importance, on creation of fluctuations in total production in Iranian economy. For this purpose, the structural vector auto-regressive method has been used during the seasonal period of 2001:02-2021:04. The results based on impulse response functions show that the shocks real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index have negative effect on output and lead to recession cycle in the economy. Also, the shocks of non-oil export, oil export, import and net capital account will be caused to boom cycle in the economy. Meanwhile, the exchange rate shock has had the most effect on output. Finally, the real exchange rate, oil export and real interest rate variables have had the most share in explanation of output variance, while the effect of import has been raised in the next.

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