Showing 19 results for Energy
Dr Hosein Sadeghih, Keyvan Shahab Lavasani, Mahmood Baghjari,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (10-2010)
Abstract
The intensive effects of “targeted subsidies plan” and its implementation and that of the price of energy carriers on macroeconomic variables such as private consumption and Gross National Product, therefore increase in the price of energy carriers and the relevant issues have been debating and discussing for a long time. Regarding the significance of the issue and also its effect on the economic and society welfare, further and more comprehensive investigations into this subject seems to be necessary. This paper is presented with a review of previous studies and then explores the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the three important macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth, inflation and private consumption in the context of a structural vector regression to model SVAR. The results show that due to implementation of this plan, the economic growth and the private consumption decrease but the inflation will increase. The results showed that, the energy price index shocks the most influence on inflation variation are explained so that voters, in the medium term and long-term changes and about 40 percent of fluctuations in inflation, energy price shocks is described. Other findings of this study is that, in the long-term energy price shocks indices respectively about 20 and 11 percent of the fluctuations in private consumption and gross domestic product by the explained. It should be noted that all results, without considering the effects of resource redistribution payment received from government subsidies are.
Dr Alimorad Sharifi, Dr Karim Azarbaijani, Dr Iraj Kazemi, Aboozar Shakeri,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (10-2010)
Abstract
Industrial energy demand analysis has always been one of the leading fields of research in economics. This issue is more critical in the case of developing countries especially those with transition experiences. In this paper, third generation of dynamic factor demand models for the Iranian manufacturing industries is estimated to analyze the speed of adjustment in factor demands. Data which is used in this study is an Iranian industrial plant based on two-digit international classification code during 1374-1386. The translog functional form is used as model specification. The main findings are the complementary relation between energy carriers, electricity, and capital and low adjustment speed of capital stock. In Iranian manufacturing industries, demand for energy carriers and capital, with expansion of manufacturing activities and technological change has increased, while the demand for labor has decreased.
Dr Ahmad Ameli,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (3-2011)
Abstract
This article seeks to modeling social welfare functions, for assessment of how distribution of transfer payment among socio-economic levels. We consider providing social welfare functions two scenarios, first the each socio-economic levels receives amount of transfer payment equal to others, and second the each socio-economic levels receives that with weighted preferences. The four basic functions determine optimal value of how distribution, and then calculate actual value of that by transforming COICOP to ISIC . Finally the difference between optimal and actual values is determined for rural and urban society and for first and second scenario. At the first scenario the difference between optimal and actual value is smaller than second and this difference at rural society is greater than urban society. The other hand the welfare distribution at the former is worse than later.
Dr Ahmad Ameli, Dr Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani ,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)
Abstract
This paper presents an AHP and FLP model for the allocation of energy subsidies to different economic sectors. To do so, we defined a group of socio-economic criteria that may affected by the allocation of energy subsidies. These criteria are: economic growth, energy intensity, labor intensity, inflation, social cost of air pollutions and distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels. According to calculated weights, we determined the priority of the above mentioned criteria. Also, according to the optimum overall rank of economic sectors, the commercial sector has the highest rank followed by industrial, agricultural and household and transportation sectors.
After determining the final coefficients of AHP approach, we determined the allocation of energy subsidies using linier programming approach. We also considerd the change in technology and consumption patterns of household and transportation sectors. Results show that the share of energy subsidies allocated to commercial and transportation sectors should increase to 30.4 and 28.6 percent respectively.
Dr Alimorad Sharifi, Dr Gholam Hossain Kiani, Dr Rahman Khosh Akhlagh, Mohamad Mahdi Bagheri,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)
Abstract
Although fossil fuels consumption may causes to rapid economic growth, but due to related pollutants and its consequences, the world has suffered from climate changes. Moreover, fossil fuel resources such as petroleum, gas, coal and uranium are being exhausted rapidly in the last decades. Therefore, seeking an appropriate as well as low-cost alternative for the above-mentioned energy carriers is one of the most important research topics. Regarding this situation, the utilization of renewable energy sources especially solar and wind energies is very important.
In this study, the social welfare is maximized and optimal trajectory of solar and wind energy substitution is derived by using an optimal control approach. The model is solved empirically by genetic algorithm using MATLAB software.
The results show that assuming social discount rate of 5% and no reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost during next years, transition from fossil energy to solar and wind energy must occur in 2089 while assuming a 50 % reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost in every 10 years period, this transition must take place in 2032.
Dr Mohammad Hashem Moosavi-Haghighi, Ahmad Rajabi,
Volume 4, Issue 12 (7-2013)
Abstract
In this study, we designed and simulated a system dynamic model to analyze the impacts of energy intensity changes on environmental and economic indicators in Iran.
Results show that if the current situation is continued, the industrial sector energy intensity will increase from 2.67 in the base year to 2.704 at the end of planning horizon. So, the sector will consume 540 million oil barrels to create a value added equals 490627 billion Rials in 2025. Accordingly, the amount of environmental pollutants will increase from 59 million tons in the first year to 267 million tons in 2025 and social costs of producing this pollution would be equal to 67, 449 billion Rials. These findings indicate that regarding the limitation of the production and the increasing costs of energy supply in the future, the country's industrial policies should concentrate on technological changes to increase the efficiency of energy consumption. Also, results indicate that industrial energy consumption has destructive effects on the environment and society in the future and the costs in this sector will not be reversible.
Alimorad Sharifi, Rahman Khoshakhlagh, Marzieh Bahaloo Horeh, Ali Sadeghi Hamedani,
Volume 5, Issue 16 (7-2014)
Abstract
Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.
Mehran Amirmoeini, Teymour Mohammadi, Morteza Khorsandi,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)
Abstract
This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.
Dr Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee, Ahad Mohammadi Bilankohi,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (10-2016)
Abstract
Energy as one of the most important factors of production, as well as one of the most important marginal products, has effential role in trade and economic development.The importance of energy has increased after the two oil crises in 1970’s. The relationship between energy and trade is an important topic to study for several reasons. If energy consumption is found to Granger cause exports or imports, then any reductions in energy consumption, coming from say energy conservation polices, will reduce exports or imports and lessen the benefits of trade. Energy conservation policies which reduce energy consumption will offset trade liberalization policies designed to promote economic growth. This places energy conservation policies at odds with trade liberalization policies.In this regard, the impact of trade on energy consumption through energy applications in the production process of import and export goods and their transportation is included. This study uses panel data to investigat effect of trade on energy consumption in D8 countries (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey) during the years 1990 to 2014. The results indicat that foreign trade has a significant and positive impact on energy consumption. The findings show a significant and negative impact of energy prices on energy use.
Nooshin Bordbar, Ebrahim Heidari,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
The present article studies the interactive relationships between oil price volatility and industries stocks of basic metals, petroleum and chemical products by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity (GARCH) models from March 2004 to March 2015 empirically . In this research, the VAR-GARCH model is proposed, which is developed by Ling and McAleer (2003). The model survives the return and volatility problems among the considered series and this is the VAR-GARCH advantage. The results show that there are Average effects between oil market and stocks market of basic metals and petroleum products, But this effects are not true for chemical industry market. The volatility effects between world oil price and chemical and basic metals industry markets is not existed, but between oil market volatility and petroleum products stock volatility, Significant negative relationship is existed. There for, the investors should reduce their portfolios basket dependences on oil price as much as possible.
Mahdi Sadeghi, Mahdi Khoshkhooy,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
Today one of the basic conditions for economic development in one country, is the high performance of energy sources used in different sections of the country economy. When the efficiency is raised, one of essential requirements is benefit from technologies and equipments with higher technical and performance specifications, and removing economic barriers or improving economic policies, in order to achieve as higher efficiency as possible in energy consumption. Considering that close to half of the our country energy consumption accounted for households and this sector is the largest consumer of energy in the country, and considering the importance of the issue of energy consumption, in this study we decided to analyze and scrutiny the phenomenon of energy efficiency in the household sector, and to achieve accurate and scientific analysis in this area based on expert opinion data, using structural equations modeling technique in LISREL. Based on the result of the model, economic policies (price and none price) has relatively more importance than the technical and technological solutions to the problem of improving energy efficiency in the household sector, as well as important and effective indices of each of these factors are extracted and identified. According to it, "levy a tax on energy consumption" among economic policies, and indicators of "e-government infrastructure development", "development of smart counters and Equipments WARNING energy consumption in homes" and "development of vernacular architecture patterns adapted to climatic conditions in different regions of the country" in connection with Technical foctors, have the greatest impact on energy efficiency in the mentioned sector. However, if the relationship identified for both the economic policies and technical-technological factors with the dependent variable "performance" was not acceptable very good, this matter can indicate this fact that there are other variables and factors that are influencing and can have a great role to play. Among these factors it can be addressed the socio-cultural factors and insights and norms of society which can be a help to aggravate the problem of inefficiency in energy use.
Firouz Fallahi, Reza Ranjpour, Tohid Shokri,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
The stochastic and β convergences of per capita energy use (PCEU) in the OPEC member countries are examined during the period 1971-2011. Several unit root tests, including the test introduced by Lee and Strazicich (2003) are used to examine the existence of the stochastic convergence in the series. Next, to study the possibility of the existence of β-convergence, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is employed. Both methods allow for an endogenous structural break point in the series. In addition, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is robust to the presence of a unit root and the results remain the same for the unit-root and stationary series. The results show that the PCEU in Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar, and Venezuela had experienced beta convergence during the first regime (the period before the break point). In the second regime, the PCEU in Algeria, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Qatar shows a convergent pattern. In addition, the estimated break points are clustered and correspond to the major energy and economic crises.
Musa Khoshkalam,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
Price policies are one of the most permissive policies in Iranian economic for controlling energy carrier's consumption. In addition, the non-price policies such as energy efficiency improvement are effective for controlling energy carrier's consumption. This paper assesses the economic impacts of energy efficiency improvement (in gasoline, gasoil and electric) as a non-price policy. For the purposes of this paper computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on social accounting matrix (SAM) is used. The social accounting matrix is aggregated in 12 activities and 14 commodities. The CGE model blocks are: production block, institution block, trade block, Investment block and system constraint block. The results show that, first 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency makes the highest rebound effects (of gasoline) in the transport sector with 29.8 percent, the highest rebound effect (of gasoil) in the transport sector with 24.7% and the highest rebound effect (of electricity) in the other services sector with 24.5 percent. Second 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency causes the greatest increase in the output level of sectors (related to gasoline, gasoil and electricity) respectively, in the "transport", "transport" and "other services" by 0.62, 0.51 and 0.32 percent. Thirdly 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency increases the GDP respectively 0.17, 0.15 and 0.11 percent.
Zohreh Shirani Fakhr,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
In this study, we estimate the demand for natural gas in the subsection manufacture of basic metals of Iran using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of time 1981-2013. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach. Also, because the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 2010, so we evaluate the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors. Finding of the research is that, first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly, it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run, correspondingly, are (-0.30) and (-0.79) and production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run, correspondingly, are (0.17) and (0.38). Furthermore, Cross elasticity for electricity and gasoline in the long and short run, correspondingly, are substitute and complementary goods. In addition, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan show that estimated natural gas demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.
Mehdi Yazdani, Hamed Pirpour,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
Due to the more dependence among countries and the raised demand for energy, the energy trade have increased during recent decades, while its major share is intra-industry trade (IIT). In this regard, countries are trying to exploit the diversity of a particular product, as well as the technology transfer and knowledge of technology which generated by IIT in this sector. According to the importance of role of IIT in the economies, this study will identify the determinants of IIT in the energy sector among Iran and its major trading partners using gravity model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method during 1997-2016. Based on the results, the effects of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Iran and the selected countries, the products’ diversification in the energy sector of Iran and its partners, access to the open sea for Iran's trading partners, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the energy sector in Iran are significant and positive on IIT. However, the geographical distance, transportation costs, and trade imbalances among Iran and the selected countries have had the significant and negative effects on IIT
Sajad Rajabi, Davood Manzoor,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
In this paper, the Expanding extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) is used and in the form of Input-Output general equilibrium model. The article assesses and evaluates the importance of the energy sector and its sub-sections in the Iranian economy based on Iranian input-output table of 2017 that is updated by RAS approach. In this way, the 10% reduction in the supply of coal, crude oil and natural gas, electricity and gas consumed has been investigated in four scenarios. Additionally, in the fifth scenario, by aggregating energy subsectors into one sector, the 10% reduction in the supply of energy in interaction with 75 sectors is measured. The results of this simulated model show that by reducing the supply of energy sector, "Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products" will drop by 9% in value. Respectively, "Transport via pipeline" and "Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products" reduced by 4% and 2% in value added
Shahryar Zaroki,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
Given the importance of the issue and the undeniable role of the environment in the community's life, in this research, it is attempted to test the hypothesis of the relationship between the government size and composition of government expenditure (Current and developmental) on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1971-2016 based on autoregressive distributed lag approach. To better explain, the above hypothesis is based on two parts of production (production industries) and Consumable (household, commercial, general; and transportation) has been investigated. Long-run results show that despite the fact that government size does not affect carbon dioxide emissions; the current cost ratio and developmental spending ratio of government respectively have a direct (undesirable) and reverse (favorable) effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the developmental spending ratio of government in both production and consumable sectors has a reverse effect on the carbon dioxide emissions of these sectors. However, the current cost ratio of government in both sectors does not have a significant effect. Energy intensity has a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in general format, and although the energy intensity of the production sector has no significant effect on the carbon dioxide emission ratio in this section but in the consumable sector, energy intensity is associated with direct (undesirable) effects on carbon dioxide emissions.
Davood Manzoor, Sajad Rajabi, Reza Ranjbaran,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
With the outbreak of the coronavirus in countries around the world and its rapid spread, governments have decided to impose restrictions and social distancing. Restrictions and closures of businesses and economic activities, and changes in supply and demand patterns during this period, have exacerbated concerns among economists. This article deals with the issue of changing primary energy consumption in 18 countries in the MENA region. To this end, 10 different scenarios of the future state of the disease and its limitations have been considered. The results show that according to the best scenario (rapid and complete improvement of the epidemic), Libya with 4.38% and Iraq with 3.39% will have the largest decrease, and according to the worst-case scenario (explosive disease exacerbation and complete quarantine), Libya with 12.6% and Syria with 12.3% will have the greatest reduction in primary energy consumption. The three countries, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, also had the most differences in the pessimistic and optimistic scenario. Also, taking into account the total changes in the primary energy consumption of these 18 countries, according to the most optimistic scenario, the primary energy consumption will be reduced by 1.5% and according to the worst-case scenario, it will be reduced by 8.8%.
Mr Hossein Hafezi, Mr Siab Mamipour,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2023)
Abstract
Climate change has emerged as a significant global challenge, with its impact increasing rapidly in recent decades. The consumption of fossil fuels, which leads to the emission of greenhouse gases like CO2, is a major contributor to climate change. Iran, ranked as the sixth most polluted country in the world, emitted a staggering 745 million tons of CO2 in 2020. Notably, the power plants sector in Iran accounts for roughly 30% of its total carbon emissions. As a result, the main objective of this paper is to engage in long-term planning for electricity supply and demand in Iran, aiming to reduce carbon emissions in line with the country's obligations under the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, we utilized the MESSAGE model to design an electricity generation system that takes into account the potential of renewable sources from 2021 to 2050. Additionally, the ARDL model was employed to estimate electricity demand under various scenarios, including subsidy reforms. These predictions were then incorporated into the long-term planning process for Iran's electricity supply system. The findings of the ARDL model highlight that the subsidy reform strategy leads to a 10% decrease in electricity demand throughout the planning period, indicating effective control over the demand side. On the other hand, the MESSAGE model's findings reveal that Iran's ability to fulfill its responsibilities under the Paris Agreement heavily relies on the utilization of renewable potentials across different regions in power supply planning. While carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's electrical sector are not expected to be reduced in the near future (2020 to 2030). However, in the long term (2040 to 2050), significant reductions in CO2 emissions can be achieved. According to the findings, if the electricity system in Iran is designed in accordance with a chosen scenario that incorporates green technologies and subsidy reforms, the share of renewable technologies can increase from 6% in 2020 to 15%, 50%, and 78% in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Consequently, carbon emissions in the power generation sector can be reduced by 20% and 54% in 2040 and 2050, respectively, compared to 2020 levels.
