Journal of Economic Modeling Research

  The aim of this study is to review the causal relations between TFP growth and inflation as one of the attracting issues in Macroeconomic literature. For the first time in Iran, we have used the wavelet decomposition technique to study this relation. Both TFP growth and inflation series between 1960-2006 are decomposed up to three levels. Our analysis of causality relations between all the composed and decomposed series shows that though no statically meaningful effect between original series has been proved, there are some negative relations between decomposed series in first and second level. Moreover, our study reveals some previously unknown spillover effects between various frequencies of both series as explained in paper. Finally, on the basis of relations founded between decomposed series of inflation in different frequencies, we introduce a new instrument to measure the volatility of inflation.

Exchange rate is one of the key indicators affecting macroeconomic performance, and inflation is one of the most important indicators which represents the macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to identify the relation between these two important economic variables. By using the model of structural time series and Kalman Filter algorithm the effect of exchange rate gap (the difference between official exchange rate and parallel market exchange rate) on inflation in Iran has been investigated during 1961- 2012. The results of this paper indicate that exchange rate gap has a significant positive impact on inflation in Iran, so that 1 percent increase in exchange rate gap lead to 3 percent increase in inflation in Iran.  These results have approved the single currency policy to control inflation in the country.