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Showing 7 results for Return

Volume 1, Issue 2 (12-2010)

In this article the relationship between market return and volatility is examined by applying out- of- sample methodology and ARCH (M) class models in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and international stock exchanges. The results are inconsistent with portfolio theory implications in NASDAQ, ISE and TSE. However I found only negative relationship between unexpected volatility and monthly returns in most of international exchanges. I didn’t also find any significant relationship between forecasted volatility and monthly returns. The results contradict the asset pricing theories which explain a positive relationship between volatility and return. Although there are low coefficients of determination for all regressions, asymmetric volatility of return hypothesis explains this relationship in the sense that a decrease in stock price (negative return) increases the financial leverage of companies leading to more risky stocks and an eventually increasing volatility.
Sirous Soleyman, Ali Falahati, Alireza Rostami,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (10-2016)

In this study by using Markov Regime Switching Heteroscedasticity Models (MRSH) in the form of state-space model the behavior of stock returns is examined. This approach endogenously permits the volatility to switch as the date and regime change and allows us to decompose the permanent and transitory component of stock returns. The period of the study is the fourth month of 2000 to the seventh month of 2013. The durations of the high-variance regimes for permanent components short-lived and revert to normal levels quickly and low variance regime for this components is more lasting, but durations of high-variance regime for transitory component is reverse. Also, in during periods of study low variance regime is dominant by a permanent component of stock returns but for the transitory component the high variance state is true captured.

Somayeh Azami, Sajedeh Jalilian, Maryam Ahmadi,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (10-2016)

The current study is an attempt to estimate markup and return to scale of 19 two-digit ISIC manufacturing industries of Iran, simultaneously, in accordance to Solow Residual and Structural approach, during the period 1995-2007. Based on Solow Residual approach, the neoclassical assumption of constant return to scale is approved within 95% of manufacturing industries; however in 84% of industries the price was higher than marginal cost significantly. Based on structural approach, 53% of manufacturing industries of Iran are experiencing increasing return to scale significantly; however, in 79% of industries, the price is higher than marginal cost. According to the criteria share of the cost of inputs in income as a theoretic criteria for return to scale-markup ratio, in 53% of cases, structural approach estimates this ratio closer to the reality.

Abolfazl Sadeghi Batani, Ali Souri, Ebrahim Eltejaei,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)

The main purpose of this study, is to evaluate the effect of diversion earnings forecast and earnings realized on returns stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange. In fact, this research aims to examine the diversion of earnings resulting from the diversion of corporates managers forecasts earnings, what impact these diversion of earnings have on the returns of stock price. To achieve this, 194 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange selected in the period of 2005-2013.
In this study, two groups of companies experienced the highest returns and lowest returns over the period studied, have been selected. Multi-factor model of Fama and French (1993) was used as the theoretical basis. The results indicate that forecasts of companies have experienced highest returns in comparison with lowest returns are more cautious and accurate than prediction of their future earnings. Changes in earnings realized and Tehran Stock Exchange index returns have positive and considerable relationship with stock returns as well, but these relationships for companies with highest returns are stronger than companies with lowest returns.

Nooshin Bordbar, Ebrahim Heidari,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)

The present article studies the interactive relationships between oil price volatility and industries stocks of basic metals, petroleum and chemical products by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity (GARCH) models from March 2004 to March 2015 empirically . In this research, the VAR-GARCH model is proposed, which is developed by Ling and McAleer (2003). The model survives the return and volatility problems among the considered series and this is the VAR-GARCH advantage. The results show that there are Average effects between oil market and stocks market of basic metals and petroleum products, But this effects are not true for chemical industry market.  The volatility effects between world oil price and chemical and basic metals industry markets  is not existed, but between oil market volatility and petroleum products stock volatility, Significant negative relationship is existed. There for, the investors should reduce their portfolios basket dependences on oil price as much as possible.

Ezatollah Abbasian, Ebrahim Nasiroleslami, Ehsan Saniee,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)

In the analysis of the stock market and its market indices, instead of estimating returns and their distributions at a given time interval, it is possible to extract optimal time to achieve a certain return. In this study, the distribution of investment horizons and optimal investment horizons through inverse gamma statistics method for the indices of automobile, sugar, pharmaceutical, financial and banks industries in Tehran Stock Exchange were extracted, analyzed and compared. The results of the research show that at the levels of access to +5 percent return, automotive, sugar , banking and financial indices have shorter horizons than the total index, while in terms of access to negative returns ,the only indicator of the drug group has a longer horizon than the total index.

Mehdi Pourmehr, Hamid Sepehrdoust, Mohamad Kazem Naziri, Nader Mehrgan ,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)

Considering the importance of the Banking system in Iran economy and taking into account  the strategic objectives of  bank’s activities to improve their performance indicators, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the impact of internal and external factors affecting the three profitability components; including the return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and the net income margin (NIM) indicators of 13 private banks' in Iran for the period 2006 to 2016; using structural autoregressive vector panel model. For this purpose, the macro level factors responsible for profitability of banks are divided into internal components; including the quality of management, asset quality, capital adequacy and liquidity and external components such as inflation rate, interest rates, the growth of GDP, and the development of the stock market. The results indicate that the percentage of coverage of liquidity and the ratio of Non-performing loans to total loan as internal bank variables have a negative effects and the growth of GDP as the external variable has positive effect on the profitability components.

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