Mohammad Noferesty, Mehdi Yazdany, Fahimeh Mohebbinia,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Over the past decade, Iran's economy has undergone a major and rapid experience of currency changes. One of the most important questions during the currency changes of the last decade is to answer the important question of how much the devaluation of the Rial has led to an increase in domestic prices and the extent to which these effects affect various dimensions of the domestic economy. Measuring the range of price changes in response to currency changes can be found in the phenomenon of currency transitions. The aim of this study is to analyze the inflationary effects of foreign exchange passage on the levels of imported and producer prices at different stages of production and separately in the productive sectors of the economy and also to determine the effective factors in foreign exchange passage by resorting to supply side variables in Iran's economy. The present study presents a new approach for measuring exchange rate crossings on production chains by combining econometric tools and Input-Output table in embedding and separating the estimation of exchange rate pass coefficients in two stages on import and producer prices. Industry by using the tools of Input-Output table segmentation and considering variables based on information specific to each economic sector, such as; The import sector, the export sector, the production of each sector, provide sector linkages in estimating the exchange rate passage in the Iranian economy. These measures are based on three types of time series analysis, Input-Output analysis and Panel data analysis from 1986 to 2017. Findings of the research in stage 1 indicate the high dependence of many industrial and economic sectors of Iran on imports and low elasticity of imports to the exchange rate and no substitution by domestic products. In the second stage, the coefficients of exchange rate passage on the producer are positive and significant in almost all economic sectors, and this fact confirms the effectiveness of the producer price index in the Iranian economy from changes in the exchange rate (through imports). also; The passage of the exchange rate on producer prices varies between different years in different sectors, and in some economic sectors these changes have increased over time, which indicates the increasing dependence and increasing impact of import prices on producer prices over time. It is in the policies adopted. Also, the results in stage 3 indicate a negative and significant effect of export share coefficients and the natural logarithm of domestic production and have a positive and significant effect of share coefficients of intermediate import inputs and inter-sectoral linkages, but the share of intermediate imports among other variables. It has the highest impact on the exchange rate of economic sectors
