Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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In recent decades the development of capital markets in developing countries, economic growth is desirable to have. Developed countries owe much of its development direction of financial markets, especially the stock market knows. The stock market is precisely the collection of savings and private capital to finance investment projects and on the other hand, an official and is confident that the owners of dormant savings can be relatively affordable and safe place to seek investment and their funds to invest in companies operate. The role of the stock market to boost the economy of countries like Iran and wandered from one side to the large amounts of capita and on the other hand, face a shortage of investment, is striking. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing the behavior of the stock market can be considered useful for the capital's economy. In this context, this study examines the impact of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on stock market Iran. Regression model to estimate the structural model and the data for seasonal 1991: 1-2010: 4 was used. The results of the model indicate that the short-term shock to the money supply (monetary policy instrument) and long-term government spending shocks (monetary policy instrument) Fluctuations of stock price indices explain. In other words, the impact of monetary policy on stock prices faster than the impact of fiscal policy. Because government spending through the stock market affects ,First government spending on aggregate demand and thus income consumers and the general level of prices affects subsequent stock price changes, but by changing the money supply, the faster people can spend their surplus cash available to purchase the stock of assets that form part of it. The lag effect of monetary policy is much shorter than the lag effect of monetary policy

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In this paper we analyzed the strategic interaction between government and central bank in Iranian economy. Using dynamic differential games and Nash equilibrium within cooperative and non-cooperative setting, we try to find the optimal values of debt, deficit and monetary base. The results of simulation show that in cooperative case the level of equilibrium debt is lower than the non-cooperative case and converge speed is higher in cooperative setting than non-cooperation setting. Also in cooperative case than non-cooperative case, less creation of money and less government deficit are needed for debt stabilization in long run. The results also show that in both cooperative and non-cooperative cases under uncertainty, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level. These active policies lead debt goes to smaller level.

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In the Iranian economy, which has experienced various sanctions, it was necessary to anticipate macroeconomic variables when imposing new sanctions. On the other hand, in the context of sanctions, it is possible to make a more accurate assessment of economic policies in order to be able to respond in a timely manner to these shocks and the need for appropriate planning and security against them. Therefore, in the present study, a macroeconomic model with Mixed-frequency data sampling  has been used,While having a high accuracy in prediction, it is possible that when new information about multivariate variables is obtained, based on it, the previous prediction for the dependent variable of the pattern is revised. The model consists of 27 behavioral equations, 8 communication equations and 33 definitional and union relations and the parameters of the model are estimated using time series data in the period 1338 to 1396. Predictive results show that the use of new observations in high frequency variables in the model has led to improved accuracy in predicting the endogenous variables of the model.