Showing 19 results for General Equilibrium
Seyed Fakhroddin Fakhrehoseini,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (3-2011)
Abstract
A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model is developed to study monetary business cycles impacts of volatilities of oil revenue and money supply on macroeconomic variables in Iran. The results show that 0.15 percent deviation from the trend of steady state inflation is explained by changes in oil revenue when it is accompanied by change in money aggregates. However, if such changes in oil revenues are not financed by the central bank, inflation deviates only by 0.1 percent.
The results reemphasize the fact that money is neutral in a non-sticky price framework and only affect output and employment by 0.05 and -0.01 percent respectively.
Dr Javid Bahrami, Parvaneh Aslani,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (6-2011)
Abstract
This study tries to examine the way housing residential investment in Iran's urban area is influenced by the shocks of oil revenues, and for that, time series data spanning the period 1991:1-2007:4 are deployed in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model including households, firms producing new residential houses, and the production of other economic firms as well as oil sector. The model is based on some simplify assumptions suitable to Iran's economy characteristics as: Iran as a small economy regarding capital flows, Oil Exports and goods imports and no price stickiness in housing sector. Moreover, the allocation of resources in the economy is determined by a central planning. The Model's solution and simulation is processed through using DYNARE as a subset of MATLAB software package.
The results showed that the incidence of extreme volatility in the short behavior of housing residential investment in Iran's urban area, due to shocks of oil revenues, shocks was not Persistent and quickly disappeared. This implies that Iran's economy is suffering from Dutch Disease.
Abolfazl Janati Mashkani, Dr Morteza Sameti, Dr Rahman Khosh Akhlagh, Dr Rahim Dallali Esfahani, Dr Mostafa Emadzadeh,
Volume 2, Issue 5 (10-2011)
Abstract
One of the important targets of the economic planning is economic growth via enhancement of the labor productivity. In this regard, education expenditures play a crucial role. This study aims at investigating the effect of education expenditures on the level of human capital and economic growth through a computable general equilibrium approach. The data on economic variables and social accounting matrix belongs to the year 2001. Three scenarios on education expenditures are defined and their effect on human capital and economic growth are estimated.
The results show that education expenditures have positive effects on economic growth and human capital. A 50% increase in education expenditures in the first period causes 3.81 and 5.8 percent increase in human capital and economic growth respectively. In the second period, the same increase in education expenditures affects human capital and economic growth positively by 5.4 and 7.3 percent respectively.
Although separating the economic growth into human and physical factors in the first period shows that there is no relationship between human capital and economic growth, but in second period this separation causes a relationship between the two factors.
Dr Iman Haqiqi, Morteza Mortazavi Kakhaki,
Volume 3, Issue 7 (3-2012)
Abstract
The allocation of opportunities affects income distribution and income inequality. This paper analyzes the economic impacts of initial allocation of resources and redistribution of opportunities. In this study, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on distribution of opportunities and allocation of available resources. The differences between households' income are caused by differences in labor income (skilled and unskilled) and the household's income from capital stock. The model is calibrated based on micro consistent matrix (MCM) of Iranian economy. We found that, the redistribution of opportunities and re-allocation of resources can reduce inequality. In other words, improvement in equality of opportunities leads to more equal society. The important finding of the study is that an increase in inequality of opportunity may cause the income gap grows faster. So, big reduction in inequality of income after small reduction in inequality of opportunities can be witnessed.
Dr Davoud Behboudi, Dr Mohammad Ali Motafkker Azad, Siab Mamipour,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract
Oil revenues play a significant role in the government budget in Iran and have also an important impact on GDP. This study aims at providing a practical solution for the question of how oil revenues should be managed. In this regard, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has developed to examine the direct effect of distribution of oil revenues on GDP in both static and dynamic approaches .
The results of static model show that the direct distribution of oil revenues to households has a negative effect on the government expenditures and therefore decrease the GDP . The dynamic model allows the conversion of savings into investment and capital formation. So the results of running this model show the positive effect of direct distribution of oil revenues on GDP and also the negative effect of this policy on the government current spending. Therefore, the results confirm that direct distribution of oil revenues is an effective policy in reducing the dependence of government on oil revenues and also in relying more on people and the tax revenues .
Dr Iman Haqiqi, Dr Hasan Aqanazari, Dr Gholamali Sharzei,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the “Natural Resources Perpetuity Rule” in the allocation of resources revenue. We also analyzed the potential impacts of implementing this rule on oil and gas revenues in Iran. To do so, we employed a Computable General Equilibrium Model which is calibrated based on 2010 Micro Consistent Matrix. We assumed an open economy with different sectors such as oil and gas, public services and other activities. Assuming exhaustibility, we measure the impact of different saving rates from Resources Revenue (SR) on welfare, size of public sector, activity levels and exports. We found that the more the SR, the more the welfare loss in first years, the higher the long-run welfare path, the more the non-oil export and the less the size of public sector.
Alimorad Sharifi, Rahman Khoshakhlagh, Marzieh Bahaloo Horeh, Ali Sadeghi Hamedani,
Volume 5, Issue 16 (7-2014)
Abstract
Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.
Mina Javadinia, Abdolmajid Jalaee, Mehdi Nejati,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)
Abstract
Productivity is one of the important factors in exploration, extraction and production of oil and gas. On the other hands, the literature indicates that the process of economic liberalization is an inventible matter and globalization gradually is improving. So it is important that the effect of oil shocks is considered In Iran. Based on International trade statistics, Shanghai’s countries is one of the most important trading partners of Iran. Therefore, this study investigates whether or not the extraction, exploration and production of oil and gas in Iran is affected by productivity shocks in industry sector of Shanghai’s countries. The Computing general equilibrium approach is used for investigating the effect of productivity shocks on four sectors in Iran (including industry, agriculture, services and oil sectors). Social Accounting Matrix Adjusted 2004 is considered for three scenarios including 3, 5 and 7 percent of productivity shocks (based on world economy trend). The results indicate that the increase in productivity in three industry sector scenarios of Shanghai’s countries declines the oil and gas extraction in these countries, representing efficient use of existing resources and superior technology in other industries as well as focus on oil and gas imports from other countries. So, productivity scenarios indicate that increase in the industrial sector productivity of Shanghai’s countries causes increase in oil and gas extraction in Iran. In addition to showing the relationship between economic of Iran and economic situation of Shanghai’s countries, this issue explains the process of economic globalization.
Ali Hussein Samadi, Sakine Owjimehr,
Volume 6, Issue 19 (3-2015)
Abstract
Hybrid sticky price model is one of the main models, used to analyze the Persistencyand inertia in inflation. In recent years, Mankiw and Reis (2002),s sticky information model, has also been considered by many economic analysts. So, in present paper, we try to investigate and compare these models by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, based on new Keynesian structure. For this purpose, the data 1370:1-1391:4 Iran's economy has been used. The results of the estimated coefficient of inflation inertia indicate, inflation inertia in the model of hybrid price stickiness is more than information stickiness model. Inflation Persistency analysis is based on comparing the autocorrelation function of the original data and simulated data, show that hybrid price stickiness is better thaninformation stickiness model shows inflation persistence.It seems to be a hybrid price stickiness model more consistent with the economy of Iran and economic policy makers can be more confident of the results of this model to use them.
Davood Manzoor, Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Many countries all over the world will see widespread demographic changes in the decades to come. The demographic change will affect the economy and the labor market of these countries. In this paper we employ a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to study the impacts of demographic change on the welfare, employment and activity level of economic sectors in Iran. The model includes seven economic sector and two types of labor-skilled and unskilled. We also considere the choice between leisure and work and labor mobility in the model. The model is calibrated based on the 2001 Micro consistent matrix. Results demonstrate that in the youth period, employment and activity level of sectors will increase. Furthermore, the increase in activity level will lead to an increase in income and welfare. When the population ages, on the other hand, welfare, employment and activity level of sectors will diminish.
ر
Sepideh Yasharel, Magid Habibian Naghibi,
Volume 7, Issue 23 (3-2016)
Abstract
Targeted subsidies plan affects income distribution and poverty through several channels. On most of the analyzies, changes on labor supply are not considered. Increasing nominal income alone after paying cash subsidy rule can reduce labor supply in targeted subsidies. This issue may decrease effect of targeted subsidies. In this research by CGE we calculate the result of impact of energy price increase and direct cash subsidy transfer with considering labor supply decrease in the first phase of this plan. Then we use this CGE data to calculate the poverty index and income distribution. The model is calibrated based on 2001 Micro Consistent Matrix (MCM) designed by Research Institute of Planning and Management Deputy Strategic Planning and Control. The results of the model show that while the plan reduce supply of labor, it improve income distribution and poverty in Iran. The results also reveal that the percentage of improvement in purchasing power of rural deciles is more than the percentage of improvement in purchasing power of urban deciles.
Sahar Bashiri, Mosayeb Pahlavani, Reza Boostani,
Volume 7, Issue 23 (3-2016)
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and stock market fluctuations for Iranian economy within a DSGE model. This study models the role of monetary policy in two monetary regimes including money growth and Taylor rule with traditional factors and optimal simple rule in the new Keynesian monetary framework with nominal wage and price rigidities in the Iranian economy. Bubbles in our model emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. Results show that: first, using an optimal simple rule and determining the optimal coefficients of the Taylor rule by policy makers decrease the loss function. Second, the sentiment shock which represents the size of current bubbles relative to newly born bubbles and transfers to the real economy through endogenous credit constraint, drives the movements of stock market fluctuations and variations in real economy, leading to explain the positive contemporaneous correlation between stock prices and the real economy Third, using an optimal simple rule and determining the optimal coefficients of the Taylor rule with stock price Fluctuations by policy makers decrease the loss function and it confirms that monetary policy should respond to stock market bubbles in the economy.
Bahram Sahabi, Hossein Asgharpur, Saeed Qorbani,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
In this study, using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE model) the hypothesis of asymmetry of monetary shocks in the Iranian business cycle during the period of 1979-2012 is tested on macroeconomic variables. The designed model broadens the analytical framework of dynamic equilibrium models with respect to the economic characteristics of an oil-exporting country. To extract business cycles, the Hodrick-Prescott filtering process has been used. The results of the research indicate that the effects of positive and negative monetary shocks during ascendancy and economic prosperity are asymmetric, so that the effect of positive shock during the recession period in the Iranian economy during the studied period was stronger than the negative shock level. On the other hand, the results show that the effect of positive shocks during the boom period in the Iranian economy on the price level changes its size in proportion to the size of the shock; however, the effect of negative shocks during the boom on the level of prices initially reduced inflation and then after a short time Inflation increases again. Therefore, it can be stated that in the economy of Iran both inflation and economic boom will increase. In the case of production and investment, this asymmetry is in a way that results in a broader expansionary policy in a recession and, in economic prosperity, the optimal political policy is contractionary.
Hojjat Izadkhasti,
Volume 9, Issue 31 (3-2018)
Abstract
The impact of monetary policy on nominal and real variables in the economy is very important and controversial issues in monetary economics. Thus, the interaction between the real and monetary sectors, are the questions that different schools of economic have different responses and assumptions in this design is neutral and super-neutral of money in the long run. Accordingly, the acceptance or rejection each of the above hypotheses, effects on the role of monetary policy in the economy. This study, has been investigated the effects of monetary policy in the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model on inflation and welfare, based on the money in utility function in Iran's economy. Then, the model is solved by using dynamic optimization and analyzed the results in the steady state. Calibration results and sensitivity analysis in steady state indicate that by decreasing the growth rate of money supply from 22% in the base state to 12%, reduces inflation rate from 20.45% to 10.57% decrease and increases real money balances from 0.1304 to 0.1352 unit, But the ratio of capital to labor, per capita production and per capita consumption do not change in the steady state. Finally, with a decrease in the rate of monetary growth and the increase in real money balances, the welfare increases in the steady state situation.
Hadi Keshavarz,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
The labor market, as one of the four markets, plays an important role in economic growth and development. So review developments in the labor market because of its close relationship with developments in other sectors is of great importance. This study tries to examine the dynamics of the labor market by adjusting for a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. After the model was solved, the obtained equations were linearized and their parameters were estimated using the economic data of Iran (2005-2017) by the Bayesian method. Comparing the model's moments with the economic momentum indicates the success of the model in real-world simulation (production, consumption, investment, unemployment, and participation rate). Impulse Response Functions Survey shows that participation rates are consistent with cyclic behavior. On the other hand, in response to shocks (monetary, oil revenues, government expenditures, and public sector employment), increased employment, but the unemployment rate has changed slightly due to the change in the participation rate and the change in the size of the active population, which represents the sustainability of the unemployment rate.
Ali Akbar Gholizade, Maryam Noroozonejad,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between housing prices and business cycles in Iran. Since housing has a dual nature, that is, both private and capital nature, it can play an important role in investment costs and economic growth and incite other manufacturing sectors in the country. In this paper, housing prices and business cycles have been used to measure housing as a collateral, which is included in corporate credit constraints as well as a shock based on observations in housing price fluctuations. In order to investigate the relationship between housing prices, investment and economic fluctuations in Iran, seasonal data for the period 1991-2016 was used. To evaluate this dynamic, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been used. The results show a movement between housing prices and business investments influenced by the dynamics of housing prices in the macroeconomic. The results also indicate that the inclusion of housing prices as a collateral could be a factor in increasing the asset value of firms and, consequently, borrowings and future investments that lead to a move between housing prices and Investment and economic fluctuations in the country.
Hojjat Izadkhasti, Ali Akbar Arab Mazar, Amin Jalali,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Speculative demand in the land and housing market has a fundamental role in raising the price of land and housing and causing a diversion and invasion of the housing sector with the aim of profit. The government, by imposing a tax on rent of land and housing return, seeks to control speculation, allocate the land resources and urban housing and make money to build the urban infrastructure. In this study, optimal taxation on the return of housing capital is analyzed in the framework of a dynamic optimization model in Iran. Then, the calibration and sensitivity analysis of the macro variables was done to change the tax rate on housing capital return. Finally, using the GAMS software, the optimal path of macro variables was simulated in different scenarios during the period (2016-2040). In steady state, the results of the sensitivity analysis of macro variables indicate that by increasing the tax rate on the return of housing capital from zero to 25%, and decreasing the tax rate on the return of business capital from 25% to zero, increased the level of business capital per capita, production per capita and consumption per capita by 50.62%, 13.47% and 25.27% respectively, and decreased the level of housing capital per capita by 31.5%. Also, the results of the simulation indicate that the imposing tax on the return of housing capital at a rate of 4% compared to the current state of the economy, has led to upward the optimal path of business capital per capita, production per capita and business capital per capita and gone down housing capital in the long run during the transition period.
Marzieh Rassaf, Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Dr Karim Eslamlueian, Dr Ebrahim Hadian,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
After the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the capture of the spy nest, the West, and especially the United States, in addition to pursuing other tools, has also used the tools of sanctions and has implemented many sanctions against Iran. One type of sanctions is oil sanctions, which were imposed to force Iran to join the international community. The US and its allies' embargo on Iranian oil affects the variables of the Iranian and world economies. For this reason, a computable five-zone global trade model (GTAP) is used to calculate the implications of the game tree between the three independent actors of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. The closing of the GTAP model has been changed according to the assumptions used. The results show that the US, Iran and major oil buyers from Iran are damaged by the sanctions. This damage is exacerbated by increasing oil restrictions. With the escalation of sanctions, the European Union is also gaining negative welfare. In the Nash equilibrium, the United States and the European Union will choose weak sanctions, and Iran will try to circumvent the sanctions. Due to the economic costs of oil sanctions against Iran, the lack of full understanding between the United States and Europe, and Iran's efforts to circumvent sanctions, it seems that the United States will not be able to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero.
Maryam Hajipour Apourvari, Mehdi Nejati, Mojtaba Bahmani, Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions is one of the crises in today's world. Because it doubles global warming and environmental pollution. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions has encouraged many countries to substitute renewable energy instead of fossil fuel. The effective use of green energy such as renewable energy and nuclear energy is highly dependent on the technology used in the production of this type of energy. For this reason, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of importing information and communication technology goods on renewable energy production in Iran. In this research, has been used the Computable general equilibrium model based on the social accounting matrix of 2014. The results show that in all scenarios, the production of fossil electricity in both peak and base times, as well as the production of ICT goods, will decrease because with the release of the import of these goods, foreign ICT goods will replace domestic ones and the production of these goods will be domestic. Also, the production of other sectors has increased and the largest increase is related to the gas sector. By applying the first scenario (10 to 100% change in tariff, without change in the productivity of production factors related to the production of renewable energies), with the further reduction of the tariff, the production of renewable electricity will also decrease in both peak and base times, but when The fact that the import of ICT goods is accompanied by a 3, 5 and 7 percent increase in the productivity of the production factors related to the production of renewable energies (scenarios two to four) will increase the production of renewable electricity in the base load. The production of renewable electricity at peak load has decreased in all scenarios and the results do not change with the increase in efficiency. By reducing the tariff on the import of ICT goods, the amount of CO2 emissions will decrease. Also, as the productivity of the production factors related to the sector of renewable energy production increases, CO2 decreases to a greater extent. It should be noted that with the reduction of the tariff on the import of ICT goods, the price of the goods has decreased in the investigated sectors. As a result, reduce the pollution caused by the consumption of fossil fuels and use them optimally.
