Showing 5 results for Sanction
Marzieh Khakestari, Navid Nazari Adli,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Monetary wide range of sanctions has been established against Iran in recent years by European :::::union::::: and United States. These sanctions have been targeted Iran energy and oil industry. Although, these types of sanctions are not new on Iran and Iran is familiar whit them since oil nationalization movement. This paper studies these sanctions effects on Iran in recent years and tries to assess the possible strategies with game theory. In order to achieve this proposed, three players are introduced: Iran, Saudi Arabia and United States, and then a model have been established. At the following, the model was solved and Nash equilibrium obtained for each one. Each of three players , United States , Saudi Arabia and Iran choose their strategy, respectively, pressure reduction, cooperation and cooperation. At the end of this study, the impact of oil sanction on Iran's sales, has been shown. Eventually, it was seen even with great increasing in world oil prices, Iran's in come has been downward.
Dr Alireza Garshasbi, Mr Mojtaba Yusefi,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (10-2016)
Abstract
Legal and economic dimensions of sanctions, and also its diversity make it difficult to evaluate the contribution of the sanctions on macroeconomic variables; besides quantification of sanction by itself is a major problem. As the first step in this study, we try to offer a new index for representing the sanction in economic modeling. For this purpose by applying the exploratory factor analysis approach, we try to measure the mentioned index and produce the time series for the period of 1978-2010; here twelve variables which are mainly affected by the sanctions included in related process. Then, applying three-stage least squares (3SLS) method for a small macroeconomic model, the contribution of the sanctions on major economic variables such as economic growth, trade, investment and employment are evaluated. According to the findings of this study, the direct effects of sanctions are only significant in growth and term of trade equations. It seems also that there is a direct relationship between severity of the sanctions and its impact on major economic variables.
Darvaneh Kamalii Dehkordi,
Volume 11, Issue 39 (3-2020)
Abstract
This study seeks to examine the impact of market shocks and economic sanctions on production and value added in the industrial sector, one of the most important sectors of the economy, during period of recession and boom. For this purpose, we examine the effect of oil shocks, currency fluctuations and economic sanctions on the added value of the industrial sector during the recession and boom period, from 1974 to 2016. The results of Markov model estimation imply that the effects of shocks are asymmetric. Positive oil shocks and currency fluctuations have positive effect on value added industrial sector during the boom period and have negative effect during the recession. The results show that if Iran's economy is booming at time t, market shocks and economic sanctions will remain in the same position with a probability of 0.3864%, and if the Iranian economy If t + 1 is in a recession, it is likely to remain at 0.6791% at t + 1. While according to results of estimating the number of years in each diet, the number of prosperity years was lower than the recession period (27 recession periods vs. 14 prosperity periods) and the rate of durability was more during the recession. Another interesting point is that Inventory of capital, inflation of production, consumption of private sector and employment during the recession had a negative relationship with the added value of industry.So, about Iran economy, it seems that establishing an appropriate theoretical relationship between these important variables influenced more by fundamental changes in Political and economic conditions than government economic policies. Thus, although the role of macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal policies, is essential for the growth of value added production but also providing economic security and a secure environment for investment, expansion and diversifying financial markets and institutions, and More productive engagement with the world and major trading partners, moving towards an open economy and the use of foreign investment and developing capital market regulations with the aim of transparency and stability to increase savings and investment is essential and could provide the basis for Increasing production in the manufacturing sector.
Marzieh Rassaf, Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Dr Karim Eslamlueian, Dr Ebrahim Hadian,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
After the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the capture of the spy nest, the West, and especially the United States, in addition to pursuing other tools, has also used the tools of sanctions and has implemented many sanctions against Iran. One type of sanctions is oil sanctions, which were imposed to force Iran to join the international community. The US and its allies' embargo on Iranian oil affects the variables of the Iranian and world economies. For this reason, a computable five-zone global trade model (GTAP) is used to calculate the implications of the game tree between the three independent actors of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. The closing of the GTAP model has been changed according to the assumptions used. The results show that the US, Iran and major oil buyers from Iran are damaged by the sanctions. This damage is exacerbated by increasing oil restrictions. With the escalation of sanctions, the European Union is also gaining negative welfare. In the Nash equilibrium, the United States and the European Union will choose weak sanctions, and Iran will try to circumvent the sanctions. Due to the economic costs of oil sanctions against Iran, the lack of full understanding between the United States and Europe, and Iran's efforts to circumvent sanctions, it seems that the United States will not be able to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero.
Mohamad Noferesti, Mohamadreza Sezavar,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
In the Iranian economy, which has experienced various sanctions, it was necessary to anticipate macroeconomic variables when imposing new sanctions. On the other hand, in the context of sanctions, it is possible to make a more accurate assessment of economic policies in order to be able to respond in a timely manner to these shocks and the need for appropriate planning and security against them. Therefore, in the present study, a macroeconomic model with Mixed-frequency data sampling has been used,While having a high accuracy in prediction, it is possible that when new information about multivariate variables is obtained, based on it, the previous prediction for the dependent variable of the pattern is revised. The model consists of 27 behavioral equations, 8 communication equations and 33 definitional and union relations and the parameters of the model are estimated using time series data in the period 1338 to 1396. Predictive results show that the use of new observations in high frequency variables in the model has led to improved accuracy in predicting the endogenous variables of the model.
