Showing 5 results for Social Security
Mr Majid Dashtban Faroji, Dr Saeed Samadi , Dr Rahim Dallali Isfahani, Dr Majid Fakhar, Dr Mahanosh Abdollahe Milani,
Volume 1, Issue 2 (12-2010)
Abstract
The ability of OLG models in analyzing and simulating the various fields of an economy, such as the investigation of endogenous growth policies, the development of intergenerational equity criteria and the reform of social security system, has caused these models to have a special position among economists in recent decades. However, difficulties in quantifying these models and analyzing their stability properties have led them to remain only theoretical and receiving less attention from empirical viewpoints.
This paper uses the proposed method by Auerbach and Kotlikoff to estimate a 55-period overlapping generations model. Then due to failures of the Iran’s Pension System, it analyses and simulates Pension System within overlapping generation’s model with heterogeneous agents living in 55 periods. Thus we study the effects of transition from the Pay-As-You-Go Pension to the Fully Funded Pension System in the process of capital accumulation, national production and national consumption.
The findings indicate that the individual optimal consumption-saving behavior varies under different social security systems. The results of the simulation model show that in addition to increasing the personal financial assets, Fully Funded Pension System provides a higher physical capital accumulation for the economy than that of Pay-as-you-go Pension System. In addition to higher levels of national consumption and production, the transition to the new system causes people to have more incentive to stay in the labor market and to complete their career because they have higher labor income than the old pension system.
Abbas Khandan,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Collective pension funds have many advantages including larger risk pool and the possibility of interpersonal and intergenerational risk sharing, as well as economies of scale and lower administrative costs. For decades, however, this has been achieved through mandatory participation, while this traditional and mandatory form of contribution is no longer commensurate with the future of work. In this regard, many countries have implemented a combinatorial policy in the form of auto-enrolment pensions and then the granting of opting out authority. However, the sustainability of these schemes will depend on people's motivation to participate or leave. This article tries to examine the motivations of individuals to exit the Iran Social Security Organization (ISSO) pension fund, assuming that the insureds are given the opportunity to opt out once in a certain time. For this purpose, the method of option pricing is used. Findings show that insureds will accept even a 60 percent deficit in fund’s long-term liabilities for the only reason to take advantage of investment income of their predecessors funds or interpersonal and intergenerational risk sharing. It was also observed that an increase in the funding ratio, lower liabilities, a rise in assets and a higher rate of return on investments encourage participation and reduce the incentive to exit. A decline in accrual rate, increase in the contribution rate, higher retirement age, accelerating the adjustment rate of fund deficit due to their detrimental effect on the insureds have a direct negative effect on the incentive to participate and stimulate withdrawal. It should be noted, however, that these factors will also reduce liabilities and increase the funding ratio, thereby contributing to the sustainability of the plan may ultimately reduce the exit incentives.
Yasin Ghasemi, Abbas Khandan, Narges Akbarpour-Roshan,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (5-2022)
Abstract
The pension coverage of the Iranian Social Security Organization for self-employed workers is offered at three contribution rates of 12, 14 and 18 percent, but looking at the statistics shows that the demand for these types of insurances is low. This research investigates the characteristics of these insured groups by using data mining and applying two machine learning algorithms, decision tree and random forest, and predicts their behavior by providing a classification model. This will help the Social Security Organization to improve customer relationship management. For this purpose, the information of 1286174 insured persons of self-employed in 2020 was used, which includes the characteristics of age, gender, average monthly income, the years of service, and the type of self-employed pension scheme. The obtained results show that women mainly apply for the scheme with 12 percent contribution, while men tend to be covered by schemes with contribution rates of 14 and 18 percent due to the burden of supporting the family. Also, for men, the demand for schemes of 14 and 18 percent increases with the increase of age, income and years of service, but there are no such trends for women. According to the obtained results, years of service and then gender are decisive in choosing the type of pension scheme in such a way that according to the prediction of the model, people with less than 4.5 years of service are known as definite applicants for 12 percent self-employed pension scheme.
Leila Ahmadvand, , ,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Social security organization, as the largest active institution in the field of social security and insurance of the country, plays a critical role in the social, livelihood and economic situation, so that any kind of disturbance in the economic situation of that organization creates a crisis in the entire economic system. provides Since the fulfillment of the obligations of the organization to the society is based on the economic ability and the resources it has, it is necessary to make a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the resources of the organization and make policies accordingly. In this research, the effect of monetary and financial policies on the state of social security organization's resources has been investigated in two models. The time period of the research is between 1350 and 1399, and in order to analyze the data, the vector autoregression method with distributed intervals (ARDL) was used. The results of the research show that the real GDP, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate, support ratio and the ratio of compulsory workers to the total insured have a positive and significant impact on the state of social security organization's resources. Also, the effect of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP on the organization's resources is negative. In this regard, in order to improve the situation of resources, it is suggested that, in addition to economic policies (such as no excessive growth of taxes, regulation of liquidity and interest rates at a level commensurate with the increase in economic growth), population policies and increasing youth The population should also be given enough attention.
Ali Siami, Alireza Erfani, Seyad Mohammad Mostolizadeh,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of parametric reforms on the financial sustainability of the Social Security Organization, the largest social insurance organization in the country. To this end, an overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed. The issue is analyzed through four different scenarios. The results show that in the first scenario, increasing life expectancy by 3 years without changing the retirement age will increase the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2%. In the second scenario, increasing the retirement age by 2 years and reducing life expectancy by 1 year will decrease the ratio of expenditures to resources by about 0.8%. In this case, the share of retirees' consumption in production and the labor force participation rate will decrease by 5% and 3%, respectively. In the third scenario, raising insurance premiums by 2% will not cause significant changes in the ratio of expenditures to resources due to a reduction in labor supply. Finally, in the fourth scenario, increasing both the retirement age and life expectancy by 2 and 3 years, respectively, will raise the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2.4%.
