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Majid Saeidirad, Farhad Azizpour,
Volume 11, Issue 41 (12-2022)
Volume 11, Issue 41 (12-2022)
Abstract
Introduction
The occurrence of the Covid-19 epidemic and the strains caused by it will definitely affect different parts of human life, including; cultural, social, economic and environmental, as well as human interactions. In the meantime, various human activities in space, including the processes and system of economic activities, will also be affected by this epidemic. Therefore, the activity system of rural regions is also affected by the harmful effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. According to the official data of the Planning and Budget Organization in 2019, after the start of the pandemic in Iran, about 250 thousand people in the agricultural sector (25 percent), 17 thousand people in the industry sector (2 percent) and 743 thousand people in the service sector (75 percent), have lost their jobs. According to the data of the Statistical Centre of Iran, economic activities in the central district of Ray County have the highest percentage of activities in the service sector (43%), followed by the industry sector (42%) constitutes the dominant activities of the villagers, in addition to the agricultural sector with 15%. Due to the complexity, many uncertainties and the multi-functional role of the villages in the Central District of Ray County in production activities, rural development policies in the Post Covid-19 should focus on sustainable development goals and livelihood. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable rural development and economic resilience in this area, the process of exploring and examining the future is necessary to determine the trends, key drivers and uncertainties affecting the activities system of the villagers and form the basis for strategic decision-making.
Methodology
This research, using the mixed research method and Delphi technique (34 people) and the MICMAC software, has determined the "key drivers effective on the reconstruction of the activity system of rural regions in the Post Covid-19". In this research, the "Purposive sampling" method was used, and an attempt was made to select 10 to 15 people from each category or homogenous group as a sample and panel members to achieve a consensus. Finally, using environmental survey, documentary studies and experts' points of view, 48 key factors affecting the development of the activity system of the villages in the central district of Ray County in the Post Covid-19 era have been identified at three local, regional, national and international levels.
Discussion and Conclusion
In this research, 48 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of rural areas in the post-corona era. First, they were analyzed by the structural analysis method in Micmac software (the opinion of the elites with the interaction questionnaire). Then, ten influential vital factors in reconstructing the activity system of the villagers of the central district of Ray County were selected in the Post Covid-19 era. Based on the obtained results, the most important key drivers affecting the villagers' activity system in the study area in order of importance; Marginalization, commoditization of land, destruction of agricultural lands, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increasing urban sprawl, change of cultivation pattern, increasing inflation, reduction of labor force and reduction of product insurance. Finally, the distribution of the variables affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of the rural settlements in the Central District of Ray County in the post Covid-19 era shows the system's instability. This instability in the studied area represents the transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-based economy in the post-Covid-19 era. If the current trend continues, this type of reconstruction of the activity system will continue.
The occurrence of the Covid-19 epidemic and the strains caused by it will definitely affect different parts of human life, including; cultural, social, economic and environmental, as well as human interactions. In the meantime, various human activities in space, including the processes and system of economic activities, will also be affected by this epidemic. Therefore, the activity system of rural regions is also affected by the harmful effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. According to the official data of the Planning and Budget Organization in 2019, after the start of the pandemic in Iran, about 250 thousand people in the agricultural sector (25 percent), 17 thousand people in the industry sector (2 percent) and 743 thousand people in the service sector (75 percent), have lost their jobs. According to the data of the Statistical Centre of Iran, economic activities in the central district of Ray County have the highest percentage of activities in the service sector (43%), followed by the industry sector (42%) constitutes the dominant activities of the villagers, in addition to the agricultural sector with 15%. Due to the complexity, many uncertainties and the multi-functional role of the villages in the Central District of Ray County in production activities, rural development policies in the Post Covid-19 should focus on sustainable development goals and livelihood. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable rural development and economic resilience in this area, the process of exploring and examining the future is necessary to determine the trends, key drivers and uncertainties affecting the activities system of the villagers and form the basis for strategic decision-making.
Methodology
This research, using the mixed research method and Delphi technique (34 people) and the MICMAC software, has determined the "key drivers effective on the reconstruction of the activity system of rural regions in the Post Covid-19". In this research, the "Purposive sampling" method was used, and an attempt was made to select 10 to 15 people from each category or homogenous group as a sample and panel members to achieve a consensus. Finally, using environmental survey, documentary studies and experts' points of view, 48 key factors affecting the development of the activity system of the villages in the central district of Ray County in the Post Covid-19 era have been identified at three local, regional, national and international levels.
Discussion and Conclusion
In this research, 48 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of rural areas in the post-corona era. First, they were analyzed by the structural analysis method in Micmac software (the opinion of the elites with the interaction questionnaire). Then, ten influential vital factors in reconstructing the activity system of the villagers of the central district of Ray County were selected in the Post Covid-19 era. Based on the obtained results, the most important key drivers affecting the villagers' activity system in the study area in order of importance; Marginalization, commoditization of land, destruction of agricultural lands, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increasing urban sprawl, change of cultivation pattern, increasing inflation, reduction of labor force and reduction of product insurance. Finally, the distribution of the variables affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of the rural settlements in the Central District of Ray County in the post Covid-19 era shows the system's instability. This instability in the studied area represents the transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-based economy in the post-Covid-19 era. If the current trend continues, this type of reconstruction of the activity system will continue.
Asma Khosravi Zo, Maryam Ghasemi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (1-2023)
Volume 11, Issue 42 (1-2023)
Abstract
Introduction
In rural areas, Covid-19 has, directly and indirectly, affected all aspects of rural society in the medium and short term. Thus, the economy of the tourist destination villages of Kalat county, which has a lot of dependence on tourism, has faced a severe recession due to the impact of Covid-19 and has been severely damaged. In general, based on the initial exploratory studies of the economy, these tourist destinations have faced the following problems:
A) Decrease in tourism demand: Due to the impact of Covid-19, the number of tourists entering the rural tourism destinations of Kalat county has decreased significantly. The average annual number of tourists in Ortakand village has decreased from 200 thousand people to 10 thousand people, in Baba Ramzan village from 20 thousand people to 4 thousand people, and in Abgarm village, from 40 thousand people to less than 20 thousand people after the outbreak of Covid-19 which has created many problems for the economy of these villages.
B) Decrease in the income of the tourism sector: Due to the decrease in tourism demand, we are witnessing a decrease in money coming to tourism destinations and a decrease in the direct and indirect income of activists of the tourism market in the villages of tourism destinations, so that in the village of Ortakand, the income of those working in the tourism sector has decreased by about 90%. Before Covid-19, the people of this village earned money by selling livestock, and agricultural and horticultural products, as well as through supermarkets and renting resorts to tourists. Also, before the outbreak of Covid-19 in Baba Ramzan village, 90% of dairy products, 80% of handicraft products of the villagers, as well as other products of the village such as gardens, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, medicinal plants and rice were bought by tourists, but after the outbreak of Covid 19, The income that the people of this village earned from the sale of these products has decreased by 85-90 percent.
C) Increase in unemployment: The decrease in tourism demand has caused a decrease in job opportunities in tourism destinations and the unemployment of many tourism activists in rural areas. After covid-19, those villagers who have been active in the tourism sector, such as eco-tourism resorts, guest houses, renting beds and gazebos, selling agricultural, garden, livestock, dairy products etc., due to the lack of tourists, have faced unemployment. So 80% of people in Ortakand village, 30% in Baba Ramzan village and 20% in Abgarm village have become unemployed due to the spread of Covid-19.
D) Inefficiency of investments: After Covid-19, due to the decrease and absence of tourists, the investments that some people in these villages had made in the tourism sector, such as eco-tourism resorts, beds and gazebos, supermarkets, etc., which has often been by obtaining facilities, but has remained without returns, which, in addition to the problem of unemployment, has made it difficult for these people to repay these facilities.
According to these, the research question is raised as follows: To what extent has the spread of Covid 19 affected the economy of the tourism target villages of Kalat County?
Methodology
The research method is descriptive-analytical and of the type of applied-developmental research. In this study, eight tourism destination villages in Kalat Naderi County were identified and studied with the help of field and documentary studies. The impact of Covid-19 on the economy of tourism destination villages was quantified based on the Likert scale and under the three components of employment, investment and income with the help of 19 indicators. The research tool was completed with the help of 22 experts from tourism destination villages. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using 19 indicators, and the Cronbach's alpha coefficient was favorable with a value of 0.9.
Discussion and conclusion
With the spread of Covid-19, rural tourism destinations have faced many economic problems. Since these villages get a large part of their income from the tourism sector, they faced unemployment after the spread of Covid-19, and finally, the economy of these villages faced stagnation. According to the obtained results, it can be said that Covid-19 has had many negative effects on the economy of tourist villages. The results showed that the average impact of Covid-19 on the economy of tourist destination villages was 3.68 on the Likert scale. Also, the impact of Covid-19 on income, with an average of 3.8, is higher than on investment, with 3.54 and employment, with 3.53. Obviously, the income from the tourism sector has decreased greatly due to the sharp decrease in the number of tourists. Also, the average impact of Covid-19 on the economy of all the studied tourism target villages was higher than 3. Therefore, there is a significant difference between the average effects of Covid-19 on the economy of the studied villages after the outbreak of Covid-19 compared to before, and the average of the investigated variables has decreased significantly after Covid-19. So that in the villages of tourism destinations, there has been a decrease of 19,941 tourists per year compared to before the outbreak of Covid-19. This situation has caused an average decrease of 31 direct businesses and 44 indirect businesses active in tourism, 47 direct and 77 indirect employees and 1.5 eco-tourism resorts compared to before the outbreak of Covid-19 in each of the tourism destination villages.
In rural areas, Covid-19 has, directly and indirectly, affected all aspects of rural society in the medium and short term. Thus, the economy of the tourist destination villages of Kalat county, which has a lot of dependence on tourism, has faced a severe recession due to the impact of Covid-19 and has been severely damaged. In general, based on the initial exploratory studies of the economy, these tourist destinations have faced the following problems:
A) Decrease in tourism demand: Due to the impact of Covid-19, the number of tourists entering the rural tourism destinations of Kalat county has decreased significantly. The average annual number of tourists in Ortakand village has decreased from 200 thousand people to 10 thousand people, in Baba Ramzan village from 20 thousand people to 4 thousand people, and in Abgarm village, from 40 thousand people to less than 20 thousand people after the outbreak of Covid-19 which has created many problems for the economy of these villages.
B) Decrease in the income of the tourism sector: Due to the decrease in tourism demand, we are witnessing a decrease in money coming to tourism destinations and a decrease in the direct and indirect income of activists of the tourism market in the villages of tourism destinations, so that in the village of Ortakand, the income of those working in the tourism sector has decreased by about 90%. Before Covid-19, the people of this village earned money by selling livestock, and agricultural and horticultural products, as well as through supermarkets and renting resorts to tourists. Also, before the outbreak of Covid-19 in Baba Ramzan village, 90% of dairy products, 80% of handicraft products of the villagers, as well as other products of the village such as gardens, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, medicinal plants and rice were bought by tourists, but after the outbreak of Covid 19, The income that the people of this village earned from the sale of these products has decreased by 85-90 percent.
C) Increase in unemployment: The decrease in tourism demand has caused a decrease in job opportunities in tourism destinations and the unemployment of many tourism activists in rural areas. After covid-19, those villagers who have been active in the tourism sector, such as eco-tourism resorts, guest houses, renting beds and gazebos, selling agricultural, garden, livestock, dairy products etc., due to the lack of tourists, have faced unemployment. So 80% of people in Ortakand village, 30% in Baba Ramzan village and 20% in Abgarm village have become unemployed due to the spread of Covid-19.
D) Inefficiency of investments: After Covid-19, due to the decrease and absence of tourists, the investments that some people in these villages had made in the tourism sector, such as eco-tourism resorts, beds and gazebos, supermarkets, etc., which has often been by obtaining facilities, but has remained without returns, which, in addition to the problem of unemployment, has made it difficult for these people to repay these facilities.
According to these, the research question is raised as follows: To what extent has the spread of Covid 19 affected the economy of the tourism target villages of Kalat County?
Methodology
The research method is descriptive-analytical and of the type of applied-developmental research. In this study, eight tourism destination villages in Kalat Naderi County were identified and studied with the help of field and documentary studies. The impact of Covid-19 on the economy of tourism destination villages was quantified based on the Likert scale and under the three components of employment, investment and income with the help of 19 indicators. The research tool was completed with the help of 22 experts from tourism destination villages. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using 19 indicators, and the Cronbach's alpha coefficient was favorable with a value of 0.9.
Discussion and conclusion
With the spread of Covid-19, rural tourism destinations have faced many economic problems. Since these villages get a large part of their income from the tourism sector, they faced unemployment after the spread of Covid-19, and finally, the economy of these villages faced stagnation. According to the obtained results, it can be said that Covid-19 has had many negative effects on the economy of tourist villages. The results showed that the average impact of Covid-19 on the economy of tourist destination villages was 3.68 on the Likert scale. Also, the impact of Covid-19 on income, with an average of 3.8, is higher than on investment, with 3.54 and employment, with 3.53. Obviously, the income from the tourism sector has decreased greatly due to the sharp decrease in the number of tourists. Also, the average impact of Covid-19 on the economy of all the studied tourism target villages was higher than 3. Therefore, there is a significant difference between the average effects of Covid-19 on the economy of the studied villages after the outbreak of Covid-19 compared to before, and the average of the investigated variables has decreased significantly after Covid-19. So that in the villages of tourism destinations, there has been a decrease of 19,941 tourists per year compared to before the outbreak of Covid-19. This situation has caused an average decrease of 31 direct businesses and 44 indirect businesses active in tourism, 47 direct and 77 indirect employees and 1.5 eco-tourism resorts compared to before the outbreak of Covid-19 in each of the tourism destination villages.
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