Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
jemr 2018, 9(33): 43-88 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Bahrami J, Daneshjafari D, Sayadi M, Pasha P. Designing a Dynamic Macro Econometric Model for the Iranian economy with Emphasizing on dynamics of the National Development Fund. jemr 2018; 9 (33) :43-88
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1658-en.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1658-en.html
1- Allameh Tabatabei University
2- Kharazmi University ,m.sayadi@khu.ac.ir
2- Kharazmi University ,
Abstract: (5236 Views)
Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The results of the study, based on the out of sample and the four scenarios (the existence and absence of the NDF, the change in the share of the fund from oil revenues, the Fund's floating share of oil revenues, and the scenario of the fund exposure with temporary and permanent oil shocks) indicate that, The creation of a NDF in the short term will not improve the situation of macroeconomic variables, and the positive effects of such a policy will appear in the long run. The reason for this the private sector investment was time consuming and, consequently, the increase in non-oil sector production in the economy. Nevertheless, it is possible in the short term that by designing foreign exchange or budgetary policies, the initial downturn in the level of economic activity may be reduced by the stablization of the fund. Moreover, as in the mechanism of the fund, the floating share of oil revenues (adopting an anticyclical policy in allocating oil revenues to the fund) will help to reduce the negative consequences of shocks in the short run, because the lowest initial inflationary pressures, fluctuations in exchange rates and the net debt of the public sector occurs under this scenario.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
Received: 2018/01/26 | Accepted: 2018/09/30 | Published: 2018/12/19
Received: 2018/01/26 | Accepted: 2018/09/30 | Published: 2018/12/19
References
1. Abrishami, H., (1992), Preparation and Application of Macroeconometrics Models in Iran - A Comparative Study, Journal of Economic Research, Volume 31, Issue 46.
2. Alleomran, R., Baradaranshoraka, H. (2008). A small continuous-Time macroeconometrics model of Iran (Structural Analysis). Iranian journal of management sciences (IAMS), 2(6), 235-263.
3. Bahrami, J., (1998), Transfer of oil shocks in various foreign exchange regimes and the functioning of consolidation policies (Case Study: Iran), PhD Thesis, University of Tehran.
4. Behboudi, D., (2008). The Role of the Exchange Reserve Account in the Stability of Government's Revenues in Iran (Using a CGE Model). Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 43(1).
5. Behboudi D, Motafkker Azad M A, Mamipour S. (2013), The Effects of Direct Distribution of Oil Revenues on GDP in Iran: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach. jemr.; 3 (10) :125-152
6. Berg, Andrew, Rafael Portillo, Shu-Chun S. and Luis-Felipe Zanna, (2012), "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries" IMF Working Paper WP/12/274, International Monetary Fund. [DOI:10.5089/9781475535563.001]
7. Burney, Nadeem A. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Alawadhi, Ahmad & Al-Musallam, Marwa, (2018). "The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait's long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-304. [DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.018]
8. Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, (http://tsd.cbi.ir)
9. Cherif, Reda, and Fuad Hasanov, (2012), "Oil Exporters' Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest." IMF Working Paper WP/12/4, International Monetary Fund. [DOI:10.5089/9781475502459.001]
10. Eifert, Gelb and Nils Tallroth, Managing Oil Wealth, Finance and Development, IMF, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 2003. [DOI:10.5089/9781451953350.022]
11. Fair, R, C, (2013). "Macroeconometric Modeling". Harvard University Press, Business & Economics. pp.2-32.
12. Garshasbi A, (2016) Yusefi M. Assessment of International Sanctions on Iranian Macroeconomic Variables. jemr.; 7 (25) :129-182. [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jemr.7.25.129]
13. Gylfason, Th, (2001). Nature, Power, and Growth, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol 48, No5, pp.558-588. [DOI:10.1111/1467-9485.00215]
14. - Hansen, L. P. (1982), "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, 50, 1029-1054. [DOI:10.2307/1912775]
15. Hosseininasab E, Abdullahi Haghi S, Naseri A, Agheli L. (2016), The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium). QJER.; 16 (2) :173-200.
16. Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic Of IRAN, (2015), A Long Run Structural Macroeconometric Model for Iran, Economic Study (Macroeconomics and Modeling Group).
17. Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic Of IRAN, (2009), Macroeconomic management in oil exporting countries (Proceedings), ISBN: 978-964-8427-57-8
18. Kader A., The Contribution of Oil Export to Economic Development A Study of Major Oil Exporting Countries, The American Economist, 1980, Vol. 20, pp. 46-51. [DOI:10.1177/056943458002400108]
19. Khiabani, N, (2003), A dynamic macroeconomic model for Iran: a new approach to econometrics, Monetary and Banking Research Center, ISBN: 964-6035-86-8.
20. Kozminski, K., & Baek, J. (2017). Can an oil-rich economy reduce its income inequality? Empirical evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend. Energy Economics, 65, 98-104. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.021]
21. Manzoor D, Taghipour A., (2016), A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for an oil exporting and small open economy: the case of Iran. Journal of Economic Research and Poilicies, 3.; 23 (75) :7-44
22. Melina, Giovanni; Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe (2014). "Debt Sustainility, Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR International Monetary Fund, Washington, ا 50 - Model," IMF Working paper, pp. 14 D.C. [DOI:10.5089/9781475515459.001]
23. Noferesti, M, (2005). The Effect of Monetary and Foreign Currency Policies on the Iranian Economy in the Framework of a Large Macroeconometric Model. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 40(3).
24. Sayadi, M., (2013), Comparative study of investment strategies and optimal management of the assets of the national wealth funds of the world, First National Conference in Petroleum and Economic Development, Tehran.
25. Sayadi, M., Bahrami, J. (2015). Assessing the Effects of Oil Revenue Investment Policies on Macroeconomics Variables in Iran: The Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach. Iranian Energy Economics, 4(16), 85-135. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2015.1895.
26. Van der Ploeg, F., & Venables, A. (2011). Natural Resource Wealth: The challenge of managing a windfall. The Economic Journal, 121(551), 1-30. [DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02411.x]
27. www.ndf.ir
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
