Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
jemr 2021, 12(43): 133-175 |
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Rassaf M, Rostamzadeh P, Eslamlueian K, Hadian E. Global Effects of Iran Oil Sanctions:an Application of Games Theory. jemr 2021; 12 (43) :133-175
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2166-en.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2166-en.html
1- Shiraz University
2- Shiraz University ,parvizrostamzprvizrostamzadeh@shirazu.ac.ir
2- Shiraz University ,
Abstract: (5870 Views)
After the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the capture of the spy nest, the West, and especially the United States, in addition to pursuing other tools, has also used the tools of sanctions and has implemented many sanctions against Iran. One type of sanctions is oil sanctions, which were imposed to force Iran to join the international community. The US and its allies' embargo on Iranian oil affects the variables of the Iranian and world economies. For this reason, a computable five-zone global trade model (GTAP) is used to calculate the implications of the game tree between the three independent actors of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. The closing of the GTAP model has been changed according to the assumptions used. The results show that the US, Iran and major oil buyers from Iran are damaged by the sanctions. This damage is exacerbated by increasing oil restrictions. With the escalation of sanctions, the European Union is also gaining negative welfare. In the Nash equilibrium, the United States and the European Union will choose weak sanctions, and Iran will try to circumvent the sanctions. Due to the economic costs of oil sanctions against Iran, the lack of full understanding between the United States and Europe, and Iran's efforts to circumvent sanctions, it seems that the United States will not be able to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero.
Keywords: Oil Sanction, EV Welfare Changes, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Game Theory, Computable General Equilibrium
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
سایر
Received: 2021/04/3 | Accepted: 2021/07/14 | Published: 2021/09/12
Received: 2021/04/3 | Accepted: 2021/07/14 | Published: 2021/09/12
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