Examining Parametric Reforms' Impact on Financial Stability in the Social Security Organization Using General Equilibrium Models Approach

siami, ali; erfani, alireza; mostolizadeh, seyad mohammad

Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023) jemr 2023, 14(51): 32-67 | Back to browse issues page

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siami A, erfani A, mostolizadeh S M. Examining Parametric Reforms' Impact on Financial Stability in the Social Security Organization Using General Equilibrium Models Approach. jemr 2023; 14 (51) :32-67
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2340-en.html

Examining Parametric Reforms' Impact on Financial Stability in the Social Security Organization Using General Equilibrium Models Approach

Ali Siami¹

, Alireza Erfani ^*

², Seyad mohammad Mostolizadeh¹

1- semnan university
2- semnan university , aerfani@semnan.ac.ir

Abstract: (587 Views)

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of parametric reforms on the financial sustainability of the Social Security Organization, the largest social insurance organization in the country. To this end, an overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed. The issue is analyzed through four different scenarios. The results show that in the first scenario, increasing life expectancy by 3 years without changing the retirement age will increase the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2%. In the second scenario, increasing the retirement age by 2 years and reducing life expectancy by 1 year will decrease the ratio of expenditures to resources by about 0.8%. In this case, the share of retirees' consumption in production and the labor force participation rate will decrease by 5% and 3%, respectively. In the third scenario, raising insurance premiums by 2% will not cause significant changes in the ratio of expenditures to resources due to a reduction in labor supply. Finally, in the fourth scenario, increasing both the retirement age and life expectancy by 2 and 3 years, respectively, will raise the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2.4%.

Keywords: Parametric Reforms, Social Security Organization, Resource-to-Expenditure Ratio, Overlapping Generations Model, DSGE Model.

Full-Text [PDF 1285 kb] (159 Downloads)

Type of Study: Applicable | Subject: پولی و مالی
Received: 2024/02/10 | Accepted: 2024/10/6 | Published: 2024/10/23