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This paper focuses on the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. The survey discusses the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The construction of the paper is an OLG model in which individuals make choices about fertility decision over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about the immortality. The simulation of model using actual changes reveals the fact that if the uncertainty about child survival enters to growth model, the population becomes an inverted u-shaped function of income per capita. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, the precautionary demand for children decreases. Furthermore, lower mortality encourages investment in children’s education .Also the calibrated version of the model using realistic estimates demonstrates that at low levels of income, population growth rises leading to Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.

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This study investigates the effects of terms of trade shocks and international reserves on the real effective exchange rate. For this purpose is used panel data technique and data related to 20 countries for 1980- 2008 period. Estimation results show that international reserves have buffer effect in terms of trade shocks and cause terms of trade shocks have less effect on real exchange rate. Of course this result confirms in developing countries, but don’t confirm in developed countries. In addition according to results, reserve effect in reduction terms of trade shocks effect in oil exporting countries is more than other countries. Also, according to estimations in this study, increase in financial development reduces buffer role of international reserves.

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  This study examines the theoretical and empirical aspects of the effect of capital inflow on exchange rate in 14 developing countries for the period 1980-2009. We developed an empirical model to investigate the effects of term of trade, real per capita output and trade openness on real exchange rate using d ynamic and heterogeneous panel and Pool Mean Group (PMG) methods. Estimation results show that various capital inflow channels have different effect on real exchange rate. For non-oil countries, only foreign aid inflow causes exchange rate appreciation in long-run and short-run and creates Dutch disease. In oil exporting countries, oil revenues and foreign direct investment cause exchange rate appreciation and create Dutch disease problems in the long-run. However, an increase in oil revenues in oil exporting countries causes more exchange rate appreciation than an increase in foreign direct investment.

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Social and economic impact of change in the subsidies payment policy have been concern in past recent years. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium model is used to analyze the impact of change in subsidies payment system from indirect to direct state, on the price and quantity variables of domestic production and employment level economic sectors in two scenarios. The basic data are used in the framework of SAM year 2001. CGE model establishes the relations between accounts of SAM into a set of simultaneous nonlinear equations, by using the modern general equilibrium theory. In first scenario, indirect subsidy of manufacturing and services sectors is remove and its full payment in cash to the urban and rural households. In second scenarios, indirect subsidy of manufacturing and services sectors is remove and its direct payment to the proportions of 50. 30 and 20 percent to the households, economic sectors and Government respectively. The results show that by change in subsidy payment, composition of production and employment in economic sectors are change. The greatest decrease in domestic production and employment level and also the highest increase in the prices level is observed in the transport products. The mining sector is only sector that is face with positive production growth rate in both scenarios, and for most sector, a decline is forecast. But GDP level is face with decline to equal 2.78 percent respectively in first scenario and 3.05 percent in second scenario. In the end, with comparing two scenarios show that more the direct subsidies paid to households increase, more the domestic production of  some sector growth.