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  Today the quantitative assessment of economic and social impacts of petroleum products supply constraints is one of the main policy issues in Iran. This issue arises from the fact that importing gasoline, gasoil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is restricted by international sanctions. In this paper, we showed that a demand driven Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is not a suitable tool for answering the above question. So, a modified SAM, known as mixed supply driven SAM is suggested. For this purpose the energy SAM of 2006 is used.

  The overall results reveal that: 1) Petroleum products supply constraints have the most impacts on crude oil and natural gas, retail and wholesale, chemical and agricultural sectors.2) Operating surplus has the most reduction among the other production factors. Results also showed that the fall of urban income as a consequence of supply constraints is more than rural labor either relatively or absolutely.

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This paper presents an AHP and FLP model for the allocation of energy subsidies to different economic sectors. To do so, we defined a group of socio-economic criteria that may affected by the allocation of energy subsidies. These criteria are: economic growth, energy intensity, labor intensity, inflation, social cost of air pollutions and distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels. According to calculated weights, we determined the priority of the above mentioned criteria. Also, according to the optimum overall rank of economic sectors, the commercial sector has the highest rank followed by industrial, agricultural and household and transportation sectors. After determining the final coefficients of AHP approach, we determined the allocation of energy subsidies using linier programming approach. We also considerd the change in technology and consumption patterns of household and transportation sectors. Results show that the share of energy subsidies allocated to commercial and transportation sectors should increase to 30.4 and 28.6 percent respectively.

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Although fossil fuels consumption may causes to rapid economic growth, but due to related pollutants and its consequences, the world has suffered from climate changes. Moreover, fossil fuel resources such as petroleum, gas, coal and uranium are being exhausted rapidly in the last decades. Therefore, seeking an appropriate as well as low-cost alternative for the above-mentioned energy carriers is one of the most important research topics. Regarding this situation, the utilization of renewable energy sources especially solar and wind energies is very important. In this study, the social welfare is maximized and optimal trajectory of solar and wind energy substitution is derived by using an optimal control approach. The model is solved empirically by genetic algorithm using MATLAB software. The results show that assuming social discount rate of 5% and no reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost during next years, transition from fossil energy to solar and wind energy must occur in 2089 while assuming a 50 % reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost in every 10 years period, this transition must take place in 2032.

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The purpose of this paper is to introduce the “Natural Resources Perpetuity Rule” in the allocation of resources revenue. We also analyzed the potential impacts of implementing this rule on oil and gas revenues in Iran. To do so, we employed a Computable General Equilibrium Model which is calibrated based on 2010 Micro Consistent Matrix. We assumed an open economy with different sectors such as oil and gas, public services and other activities. Assuming exhaustibility, we measure the impact of different saving rates from Resources Revenue (SR) on welfare, size of public sector, activity levels and exports. We found that the more the SR, the more the welfare loss in first years, the higher the long-run welfare path, the more the non-oil export and the less the size of public sector.

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Dominance of arid and semiarid climate in a vast area of Iran along with the water consumption growth necessitates a more sophisticated planning, a more efficient operation towards an optimal allocation and conservation of water resources in the country. In recent decades many countries, including Iran, have adopted increasing block tariffs for domestic water management. This policy is based on a progressive tariffs applied to control and manage the residential water consumption. In this paper, we developed a panel data model to investigate the impact of increasing block pricing on the residential water consumption during 2004-2008. The average and marginal price models of demand for residential water have been estimated to examine the effects of households’ income and the climate conditions on the residential water consumption. Results show that the increasing block pricing system has not efficiently controlled the residential water consumption in Iran.

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Price shocks lead to oil price volatility in world oil markets. In response to this volatility, economic growth may take different regime and behavior patterns in different situation. Investigating this multi behavior patterns can be useful for policymakers to reduce the effect of oil price volatility. In this study, an EGARCH model has developed using the seasonal data of OPEC oil basket nominal prices during 1367:Q1-1389:Q4. Markov switching models is also applied to investigate the multi behavior patterns of economic growth in response to oil price volatility in Iran. The results show that positive oil price shocks sharply lead to formation of oil price volatility, but, the negative price shocks will slightly reduce oil price volatility. Iranian economic growth is affected by this volatility under three different behavior regimes. If the economy switch to one of the regimes (low, medium, high economic growth), the probability of transition between these regimes and their duration is different. So, oil price volatility as a reason for low economic growth in Iran may cause the economy switch to its lower situation.

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In this study, we designed and simulated a system dynamic model to analyze the impacts of energy intensity changes on environmental and economic indicators in Iran. Results show that if the current situation is continued, the industrial sector energy intensity will increase from 2.67 in the base year to 2.704 at the end of planning horizon. So, the sector will consume 540 million oil barrels to create a value added equals 490627 billion Rials in 2025. Accordingly, the amount of environmental pollutants will increase from 59 million tons in the first year to 267 million tons in 2025 and social costs of producing this pollution would be equal to 67, 449 billion Rials. These findings indicate that regarding the limitation of the production and the increasing costs of energy supply in the future, the country's industrial policies should concentrate on technological changes to increase the efficiency of energy consumption. Also, results indicate that industrial energy consumption has destructive effects on the environment and society in the future and the costs in this sector will not be reversible.

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This report investigates the dominant factors influencing the price gap and the symmetry principle’s evaluation between the crude oil’s price and gasoline. In this regard, the Brent’s crude oil price, gasoline price in six European countries and the fluctuations of the euro vs. US dollar’s exchange rate over the period of 1/1/1999 to 8/25/2011 in weekly intervals are studied. For this purpose, linear models and nonlinear models, such as artificial neural network and wavelet transformation, are implemented. The results indicate insignificant impact of the mentioned parameters in short period price gap both for linear and nonlinear simulations, but nonlinear modeling explicates 92% of long period fluctuations in price gap. According to linear/nonlinear models the symmetry principle is accepted for short period fluctuations in crude oil’s price, but not for long periods.

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The Iranian electricity industry has been restructured following the global experiences. The main objective of restructuring is transition from natural monopoly towards competition in order to improve efficiency. Currently, the Iranian electricity market is performing as imperfect competition and Pay-as-Bid (PAB) auctions are the major trade mechanism in this market. This paper proves that Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is an appropriate approach to analyze behavior of the Iranian electricity market. Isfahan electricity market has been considered as a case study in which SFE is applied (regarding marginal cost estimation as well as demand uncertainty). The derived SFE indicates that there is major difference between SFE and Nash equilibrium.

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Developing models for accurate natural gas spot price forecasting is critical because these forecasts are useful in determining a range of regulatory decisions covering both supply and demand of natural gas or for market participants. A price forecasting modeler needs to use trial and error to build mathematical models (such as ANN) for different input combinations. This is very time consuming since the modeler needs to calibrate and test different model structures with all the likely input combinations. In addition, there is no guidance about how many data points should be used in the calibration and what accuracy the best model is able to achieve. In this study, the Gamma Test has been used for the first time as a mathematically nonparametric nonlinear smooth modeling tool to choose the best input combination before calibrating and testing models. Then, several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently with the aid of the Gamma test, including regression models Local Linear Regression (LLR), Dynamic Local Linear Regression (DLLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models. We used daily, weekly and monthly spot prices in Henry Hub from Jan 7, 1997 to Mar 20, 2012 for modeling and forecasting. Comparing the results of regression models show that DLLR model yields higher correlation coefficient and lower MSError than LLR and will make steadily better predictions. The calibrated ANN models specify the shorter the period of forecasting, the more accurate results will be. Therefore, the forecasting model of daily spot prices with ANN can interpret a fine view. Moreover, the ANN models have superior performance compared with LLR and DLLR. Although ANN models present a close up view and a high accuracy of natural gas spot price trend forecasting in different timescales, its ability in forecasting price shocks of the market is not notable.

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Abstract

 Forecasting of crude oil price plays a crucial role in optimization of production, marketing and market strategies. Furthermore, it plays a significant role in government’s policies, because the government sets and implements its policies not only according to the current situation but also according to short run and long run predictions of important economic variables like oil price. The main purpose of this study is modeling and forecasting spot oil price of Iran by using GARCH model and A Gravitational Search Algorithm. Performed forecasts of this study are based in static and out-of-sample forecasting and each subseries data is divided in to two parts: data for estimation and data for forecasting. The forecast horizon is next leading period and its length is one month. In this study the selected models for forecasting spot oil of Iran are GARCH(2,1) and a Cobb Douglas function which is functional of prices of 5 days ago. Finally, the performances of these models are compared. For comparison of these models MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE criteria are used and the results indicate that except in MAPE criterion, the mentioned criteria are smaller for GARCH model in comparison to GSA algorithm.

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This study aims to evaluate the status of Iranian gas industry and to formulate appropriate policies in order to attain the objectives of Iran’s Vision 2025. A dynamic model including exploration, production, consumption and demand sub-systems is designed based on the system dynamics approach and is simulated for the period 2010-2025. In this model, factors affecting natural gas exploration, demand and consumption as well as production, export and import of all other fuels in energy supply are identified and their dynamic interactions are investigated. The results of solving the basic model indicated that except for a 75 % share of gas consumption, none of Vision’s objectives would be attained, if current policies were followed. Accordingly, new policies are formulated and included in the model in the form of some scenarios. The results of simulating such scenarios suggest that other than coordinating the subdivisions of gas industry, production and exploration rates should be increased and significant technological exploration and production advances should be made in order to attain the objectives considered in the gas industry. Furthermore, clean energies such as water, wind and solar resources should be utilized increasingly in order to supply a part of domestic consumption. The results of model validation tests indicate the validity of the model as acceptable.

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Establishment of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran in 2001 has proved to be one of the most important changes in the gas market. Establishment of the forum has sparked the concern among the consuming countries that a cartel is being formed in the gas market, resulting in the disturbance of supply security and gas price rise. Evidence so suggests the forum is facing fundamental obstacles to form a cartel or any other influential institution. On the other hand, considering the remarkable fall in gas prices during last months, it is necessary to present a model for determining the GECF Members Gas Export Quotas to decrease the gas supply and to increase gas prices. In this paper, we present a model which if it is applied by the GECF members we can expect that gas prices will increase. Hence in this paper first we present two mechanisms for determining the GECF member’s quotas, then considering the current situation of the members in natural gas market the optimal rationing mechanism selected. Besides, for determining the total optimal amount of production in each period as optimal total export of forum two different methods present. The first is more complicated but more accurate.

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Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.

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Due to the potentiality of the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its permanent nature, the actual amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the accumulation of effective per capita carbon dioxide and the accumulation of effective per capita of this pollutant in the steady state has been estimated estimated through Kalman filter approach in a Ramsey equilibrium model over the period of 1991- 2007 for Iran. Thereby the researchers were able to estimate parameters such as the coefficient of environment cleaning for carbon dioxide, the share of fossil resources in production, the rate of time preference and the elasticity of emission function with respect to reduction activities.
   The empirical results of the study concerning the minimum, equilibrium & maximum rate of the coefficient of environment cleaning, indicate that for 1991 to 2007 in Iran the elasticity of fossil energy in production function is 0.4475, the rate of time preference is 0.12, the elasticity of emission function with respect to reduction activities is 4.45 and the coefficient of environment cleaning for carbon dioxide is 0.02. The effective per capita accumulated co2 & effective per capita accumulated co2 in steady state with the coefficient of seasonal cleaning of 0.02 respectively have the average of 50.45, 52.97 metric ton based on constant 2005 (PPP). Also the average of effective per capita consumption of the fossil fuel energy and the effective per capita capital in steady state are respectively 4.468 kg and 6.56  $ based on constant 2005 (PPP). The surpassing of the average value of the accumulation of carbon dioxide in steady state compared to its accumulation average value indicates that the accumulation path of co2 will have an increasing trend in next years.

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Natural resources as wealth in general and oil and natural gas in particular can have a potentially beneficial impact on the economic prosperity. However, economic experience implies that many of the major oil exporting countries are facing instability in economic growth, Dutch Disease, corruption and under- development. Owing to the fact that natural resources can play a vital role in development, the present study tries to investigate the econometrics relationship between export of natural resources (as a proxy for abundance) and governance indicators (as alternative variables for institutional development) in selected oil-exporting and OECD countries through the application of Generalized Moment of Method (GMM), for the period lasting from 1996 to 2011. Findings of the study revealed that the strong and statistically significant evidence confirms the negative impact of the export of natural resources on the governance index, quality of regulations, rule of law and control of corruption in the selected OPEC’s member countries. Nevertheless, such a negative impact does not have any statistically significant strength in developed countries. This is due to the improvement made in the surveillance, technical and executive mechanisms of the institutions in the selected OECD countries. It seems that the enormous incomes accrued from the export of natural resources in the oil producing countries in question will induce a decrease in transparency and accountability, instability and frequent changes in economic policies, extension of rent-seeking, corruption and authoritarianism.

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Public pricing of products is one of the most important economicalissues, since any changes in the pricing, affects both the welfare ofconsumers and quantity of goods and Services which are produced.
In this paper which is done for natural gas pricing  in Iran, the purpose is giving a price that the government can consider it as a suitable choice for using in subsidies targeting project. These prices have two advantages: first, they try to maximum the social economical welfare (summation of producer and consumer surplus) second, this method solve the problem that the producer has in covering their costs (by marginal cost pricing) because of increasing returns to scale.
This paper deals with the optimal gas pricing in household sector in Iran by the Ramsey method of pricing.
In this regard we have used fuzzy regression (because of its accuracy and devoid of classic regression restrictions) and the data from 1977 to 2011 for estimating production function and returns to scale in natural gas production side. Also for estimating demand function and elasticity we have used ARDL method and data from 1350 to 1389. The results shows that the current prices aren’t optimum and despite implementation of subsidies targeting project the prices are low.

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This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.

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This paper aims at estimating Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Model, based on two central parameters in this model (volatility and drift), and forecasting Henry Hub natural gas daily spot prices (07/01/1997-20/03/2012). Researches reveal that two mentioned parameters estimation can be satisfied with different approaches and in various time scales. Therefore, two approaches of backward looking and forward looking have been used in different time scales and sub-periods. Results show that the volatility and drift values are highly dependent on the time scale and backward results are lower than the forward ones. Moreover, along with increasing the number of random runs of the model although the fluctuating range decreases, the predicted line slope is very close to the actual line. Ultimately, the performance evaluation criteria yields that forward method, clearly in 2009, has the best performance. The sub-periods of 2001-2004 in backward and forward methods have the next best performances, respectively. These sub-periods can be used as a basis for calculating the central parameters of the model. In addition, the results suggest that relying on data used in the most recent period is not sufficiently accurate. Also, it is observed that sub-periods or time scales with higher volatility show better performance evaluation criteria, therefore they can be applied in price forecasting with GBM model.

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As one of the important energy forms, natural gas consumption has an upward trend in recent years. Therefore management and planning for provision of it requires prediction of the future consumption. But many of prediction procedures are inherently stochastic therefore it is important to have better knowledge about the robustness of prediction procedures. This paper compares robustness of two prediction procedures Artificial Neural Networks as a nonlinear and ARIMA as a linear model. using resampling method to predict the monthly consumption of natural gas in the household sector. Data spans from 2001-4 to 2012-3, to train the networks, we used genetic algorithms and Particle Swarming Optimization then results were compared using 10-fold method. According to the results, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) outperforms the genetic algorithm. Then we used data from 2001-4 to 2010-3, with resampling by 2000 to predict the  natural gas consumption for the 2001 -4 to 2012-3 and to form critical values. Results show that prediction by a mixed method using ANN and PSO is more robust than ARIMA method.