Volume 11, Issue 41 (Fall 2022 2022)
serd 2022, 11(41): 227-251 |
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Saeidirad M, Azizpour F. The key drivers affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of rural areas in the Post Covid-19(Case Study: Villages in the central District of Ray County). serd 2022; 11 (41) :227-251
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3872-en.html
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3872-en.html
1- Postdoctoral researcher of Geography and Rural Planning, kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran , majid.saeidirad@yahoo.com
2- Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2- Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (2862 Views)
Introduction
The occurrence of the Covid-19 epidemic and the strains caused by it will definitely affect different parts of human life, including; cultural, social, economic and environmental, as well as human interactions. In the meantime, various human activities in space, including the processes and system of economic activities, will also be affected by this epidemic. Therefore, the activity system of rural regions is also affected by the harmful effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. According to the official data of the Planning and Budget Organization in 2019, after the start of the pandemic in Iran, about 250 thousand people in the agricultural sector (25 percent), 17 thousand people in the industry sector (2 percent) and 743 thousand people in the service sector (75 percent), have lost their jobs. According to the data of the Statistical Centre of Iran, economic activities in the central district of Ray County have the highest percentage of activities in the service sector (43%), followed by the industry sector (42%) constitutes the dominant activities of the villagers, in addition to the agricultural sector with 15%. Due to the complexity, many uncertainties and the multi-functional role of the villages in the Central District of Ray County in production activities, rural development policies in the Post Covid-19 should focus on sustainable development goals and livelihood. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable rural development and economic resilience in this area, the process of exploring and examining the future is necessary to determine the trends, key drivers and uncertainties affecting the activities system of the villagers and form the basis for strategic decision-making.
Methodology
This research, using the mixed research method and Delphi technique (34 people) and the MICMAC software, has determined the "key drivers effective on the reconstruction of the activity system of rural regions in the Post Covid-19". In this research, the "Purposive sampling" method was used, and an attempt was made to select 10 to 15 people from each category or homogenous group as a sample and panel members to achieve a consensus. Finally, using environmental survey, documentary studies and experts' points of view, 48 key factors affecting the development of the activity system of the villages in the central district of Ray County in the Post Covid-19 era have been identified at three local, regional, national and international levels.
Discussion and Conclusion
In this research, 48 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of rural areas in the post-corona era. First, they were analyzed by the structural analysis method in Micmac software (the opinion of the elites with the interaction questionnaire). Then, ten influential vital factors in reconstructing the activity system of the villagers of the central district of Ray County were selected in the Post Covid-19 era. Based on the obtained results, the most important key drivers affecting the villagers' activity system in the study area in order of importance; Marginalization, commoditization of land, destruction of agricultural lands, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increasing urban sprawl, change of cultivation pattern, increasing inflation, reduction of labor force and reduction of product insurance. Finally, the distribution of the variables affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of the rural settlements in the Central District of Ray County in the post Covid-19 era shows the system's instability. This instability in the studied area represents the transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-based economy in the post-Covid-19 era. If the current trend continues, this type of reconstruction of the activity system will continue.
The occurrence of the Covid-19 epidemic and the strains caused by it will definitely affect different parts of human life, including; cultural, social, economic and environmental, as well as human interactions. In the meantime, various human activities in space, including the processes and system of economic activities, will also be affected by this epidemic. Therefore, the activity system of rural regions is also affected by the harmful effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. According to the official data of the Planning and Budget Organization in 2019, after the start of the pandemic in Iran, about 250 thousand people in the agricultural sector (25 percent), 17 thousand people in the industry sector (2 percent) and 743 thousand people in the service sector (75 percent), have lost their jobs. According to the data of the Statistical Centre of Iran, economic activities in the central district of Ray County have the highest percentage of activities in the service sector (43%), followed by the industry sector (42%) constitutes the dominant activities of the villagers, in addition to the agricultural sector with 15%. Due to the complexity, many uncertainties and the multi-functional role of the villages in the Central District of Ray County in production activities, rural development policies in the Post Covid-19 should focus on sustainable development goals and livelihood. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable rural development and economic resilience in this area, the process of exploring and examining the future is necessary to determine the trends, key drivers and uncertainties affecting the activities system of the villagers and form the basis for strategic decision-making.
Methodology
This research, using the mixed research method and Delphi technique (34 people) and the MICMAC software, has determined the "key drivers effective on the reconstruction of the activity system of rural regions in the Post Covid-19". In this research, the "Purposive sampling" method was used, and an attempt was made to select 10 to 15 people from each category or homogenous group as a sample and panel members to achieve a consensus. Finally, using environmental survey, documentary studies and experts' points of view, 48 key factors affecting the development of the activity system of the villages in the central district of Ray County in the Post Covid-19 era have been identified at three local, regional, national and international levels.
Discussion and Conclusion
In this research, 48 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of rural areas in the post-corona era. First, they were analyzed by the structural analysis method in Micmac software (the opinion of the elites with the interaction questionnaire). Then, ten influential vital factors in reconstructing the activity system of the villagers of the central district of Ray County were selected in the Post Covid-19 era. Based on the obtained results, the most important key drivers affecting the villagers' activity system in the study area in order of importance; Marginalization, commoditization of land, destruction of agricultural lands, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increasing urban sprawl, change of cultivation pattern, increasing inflation, reduction of labor force and reduction of product insurance. Finally, the distribution of the variables affecting the reconstruction of the activity system of the rural settlements in the Central District of Ray County in the post Covid-19 era shows the system's instability. This instability in the studied area represents the transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-based economy in the post-Covid-19 era. If the current trend continues, this type of reconstruction of the activity system will continue.
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